Bubble Watch Update: Villanova’s Close Call and K-State’s Stealthy Approach
Conference tournaments are in full swing and Selection Sunday is fast approaching, which means Bubble Watch is taking center stage. Throughout the week, I’ll be providing regular updates on the bubble teams and how their performances in conference tournaments impact their NCAA Tournament hopes. So, bookmark this page and check back frequently to stay up to date.
ACC: North Carolina is a lock for an at-large bid, while Wake Forest and Pittsburgh find themselves on the bubble. Wake Forest’s win over Notre Dame keeps them in contention, but their critical bubble showdown with Pitt will be a make-or-break game. Virginia, with their solid performance metrics, is in a better position than Pitt.
Big Ten: Wisconsin and Michigan State, two divisive teams from an at-large perspective, finished the regular season with disappointing records. Wisconsin, however, is likely to make it to the tournament thanks to their strong resume. Michigan State remains above the bubble but isn’t a lock. Nebraska finishes the regular season strong and should secure a spot in the tournament.
Big 12: TCU secured a win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament, solidifying their spot in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma is currently in the waiting game category but should still make it to the tournament. Kansas State’s win over Texas keeps them on the bubble, and Cincinnati’s comeback win against West Virginia puts them back in the bubble conversation.
Big East: Seton Hall and St. John’s will battle it out on Thursday, with the winner likely moving up to the projected in category. Providence and Villanova claimed must-win games on Wednesday but still need one more win to feel comfortable. Nova, with their strong wins over Creighton, North Carolina, and Texas Tech, is in a better position than Providence.
Pac-12: Colorado remains on the bubble after their wins over Oregon and Oregon State. A victory in the Pac-12 quarterfinals is crucial for their chances. Utah, on the other hand, needs a couple more wins in the tournament to have a shot at an at-large bid.
SEC: Mississippi State is pushing the bubble limits with four straight losses, putting their tournament hopes in jeopardy. Texas A&M, on the other hand, is trending upward with quality wins over Tennessee and Kentucky.
Mountain West: Colorado State is now a lock for the NCAA Tournament after their win over San Jose State. New Mexico remains on the bubble with mixed performance metrics and only two Quadrant 1 wins.
Other Conferences: James Madison secured their spot in the tournament with a blowout win in the Sun Belt championship game. FAU moves up to the projected in line after their win over Memphis. Indiana State is on at-large watch after their loss to Drake, while Princeton remains on the bubble as the No. 1 seed in the Ivy League tournament.
As we approach Selection Sunday, the bubble will continue to take shape, and more teams will be divided into locks and waiting game categories. Stay tuned for more updates on Bubble Watch as we get closer to the NCAA Tournament.