The Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves in a familiar position: post-Cup purgatory. After being eliminated in five games by their in-state rivals, the Florida Panthers, in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Lightning are facing the repercussions of their win-now mentality. Similar to teams like the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay’s success in recent years has come at a cost.
General managers Julien BriseBois and Steve Yzerman have been praised for their aggressive approach in building championship-caliber teams. They have been willing to trade future assets for immediate success, resulting in three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final from 2020-2022, with two championships to show for it.
However, this win-now mindset comes with consequences. The Lightning have sacrificed their future by trading away valuable draft picks and prospects. Last year alone, they gave up multiple draft picks for players like Tanner Jeannot and Brandon Hagel. While some of these deals have paid off, providing depth and scoring options, they have depleted the team’s prospect pool and limited their ability to rebuild in the future.
Currently, the Lightning are faced with a dilemma regarding captain Steven Stamkos, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent. The team’s prospect pool is ranked fourth-worst in the league, according to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler, and they are tied up in long-term contracts with their core players. They have superstars like Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman still performing at a high level, but they lack the depth and cap flexibility to build another championship team around them.
Tampa Bay finds itself in a similar predicament as teams like the Blackhawks and Penguins. They are too good to tank but not good enough to truly contend. The Blackhawks, under former GM Stan Bowman, traded away first-round picks to win three titles but struggled to maintain their success due to cap constraints. The Penguins, under GM Kyle Dubas, doubled down on their aging core and missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons.
The Lightning’s CapFriendly page is a testament to the challenges they face. Many of their key players are signed to long-term contracts that will expire when they are 34 years old, the same age Stamkos will be this summer. The team will need to find a way to keep the championship window open, even if it means making difficult decisions and potentially letting Stamkos walk in free agency.
While Tampa Bay remains an attractive destination for free agents and has a talented roster, it would be foolish to expect them to be better without Stamkos or other players they may have to shed to get under the salary cap. The Lightning are entering an inevitable decline, stuck between being mediocre and pretty good, the NHL’s version of purgatory.
In the end, the Lightning have no reason to complain. They went all-in for multiple seasons and were rewarded with two championships. However, the bill is now due, and it comes with a painful price. The team must navigate the challenges of a limited prospect pool, long-term contracts, and salary cap constraints. While they may be able to delay the decline for another year or two, there is no escaping the inevitable. The Lightning are paying the price for their win-now mentality, but it was a price worth paying for their past success.