Can Anyone Halt Man City’s Champions League Reign?
The Champions League is back, and all eyes are on Manchester City as they once again face off against La Liga leaders Real Madrid. These two teams have met in the knockout stages in three of the past four seasons, creating a fierce rivalry. The first leg of their quarter-final clash will take place at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday, 9 April, with the second leg at Etihad Stadium on 17 April.
A Battle of Giants
City emerged victorious in the last 16 in 2020 with a 4-2 aggregate win, but Real Madrid got their revenge in a thrilling semi-final in 2022, winning 6-5 on aggregate after extra time. However, Pep Guardiola and his team came back stronger last year, crushing Real Madrid with a 5-1 aggregate success that included a memorable 4-0 second-leg victory. City went on to defeat Inter Milan 1-0 in the final and lift the Champions League trophy.
The Experts’ Verdict
BBC Radio 5 Live’s Euro Leagues podcast gathered experts to discuss City’s chances of retaining the Champions League this year. Guillem Balague believes that City has what it takes to win it all. He praised their experienced and talented squad, as well as their exceptional manager who can react to any situation. James Horncastle shares Balague’s sentiment, calling City the best team in Europe pound for pound.
Raphael Honigstein acknowledges that City is the favorite but believes that an all-English semi-final against Arsenal is not what they want. However, he still backs City to win the final at Wembley on 1 June.
The Road Ahead
City might be favorites, but they face a tough path to the final. They will first have to overcome Real Madrid, a team that has won the Champions League a record 14 times. If they succeed, they might face either Premier League rivals Arsenal or the 2020 European champions Bayern Munich in the semi-finals.
A Potential All-English Semi-Final
Arsenal, making their first quarter-final appearance since 2010, will face Bayern Munich, a team that includes former Tottenham striker Harry Kane. Although Bayern has dominated the Bundesliga with 11 successive titles, they are currently second in the table, behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Julien Laurens believes there is a good chance of an all-English semi-final, with City being too strong for Real Madrid and Arsenal having a good chance of knocking out Bayern Munich.
Data Experts’ Predictions
According to data specialists Nielsen Gracenote and their Euro Club Index model, Manchester City has a 31% chance of winning the Champions League for the second time. Real Madrid follows with a 19% chance, while Barcelona and Paris St-Germain have 12% and 10% chances, respectively. Arsenal sits at 9%, with Bayern Munich at 7%. Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund round out the list with 7% and 5% chances, respectively.
Nielsen Gracenote’s head of analysis, Simon Gleave, highlights that the quarter-final draw has produced four closely matched ties, with no team having more than a 59% chance of progressing to the semi-finals. He suggests that one or two “surprise” semi-finalists may emerge.
Conclusion
As the Champions League quarter-finals kick off, Manchester City stands as the team to beat. With their talented squad, experienced manager, and excellent track record in recent seasons, they are favorites to lift the trophy once again. However, Real Madrid, Arsenal, and Bayern Munich will provide formidable challenges along the way. As the competition heats up, football fans around the world eagerly await to see if anyone can halt Man City’s Champions League reign.