Is Chris Olave the Best Buy-Low Option in Fantasy Football?
When it comes to finding a great buy-low option in fantasy football, Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints might just be the best choice. While players like Davante Adams and Chris Olave are considered studs and may not be available at a discounted price, they can still become viable options when they underperform. It’s important to always aim for fair trades, as this increases the likelihood of future trades with other managers.
High Expectations for Olave
Heading into the 2023 season, there were high expectations for Chris Olave. Typically drafted as the WR12, many anticipated a significant improvement from his WR25 rookie season.
However, things haven’t gone as planned. Olave currently ranks as WR33 in terms of fantasy points per game, trailing behind players like Courtland Sutton and Gabe Davis. He has only scored one receiving touchdown throughout the year. Despite receiving ample opportunities, with 77 targets (ninth among WRs) and a high air-yard share (ranking 14th), Olave has struggled to convert these into successful plays. He leads the league with an astonishing 750 unrealized air yards, which is over 200 yards more than the next closest WR. Additionally, Olave tops the charts in deep targets, while Derek Carr leads the NFL in air yards. However, Olave has only caught 9 of his 30 targets of more than 15 air yards, well below the league average. With just one drop on the year, the blame falls mostly on Carr. This is evident when watching game footage.
Will Olave’s Fortunes Change?
It’s uncertain whether Olave’s situation will improve. However, if a breakout is on the horizon, it will likely happen in the next three weeks. Carr has been performing better recently, with an average QB rating of 101.1 over his past four games. Olave’s upcoming matchups against the Bears (31st in EPA per pass), Vikings (18th), and Falcons (24th) present favorable opportunities. The Bears predominantly use zone coverage on 74.1% of their defensive snaps, and Olave’s air-yard share increases significantly to 42.6% against zone coverage, according to Derek Brown of FantasyPros. Moreover, Olave will primarily face struggling defenders Tyrique Stevenson (125.6 passer rating against) and Kyler Gordon (99.4), setting him up for a potentially outstanding performance.