ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 7: Strategy, Advice, and Picks
Oct 18, 2023, 02:00 PM ET
Week 6 of the Eliminator Challenge brought plenty of drama, but the most popular selections managed to survive. The Miami Dolphins, chosen by 26% of participants, overcame a 14-0 deficit to defeat the Carolina Panthers and even cover the spread. The Buffalo Bills, selected by 21% of participants, narrowly escaped a loss to the New York Giants as the largest betting favorite of the season.
As we enter Week 7, it becomes apparent that this week poses one of the toughest challenges for participants. For the first time since Week 2, there are no double-digit favorites. Only two teams are favored by more than seven points, and both find themselves in unique situations.
The Seattle Seahawks, led by Geno Smith, are favored by eight points against the Arizona Cardinals. This marks the first time Smith has ever been favored by at least a touchdown in his NFL career. Additionally, the Buffalo Bills are favored by 8.5 points against the New England Patriots, a situation that hasn’t occurred in New England since Tom Brady’s first career start in 2001.
While these two teams are the top picks for Week 7, it’s important to consider game theory and make strategic choices. The Bills have already been heavily used by participants, while the Seahawks remain largely unused. This presents an opportunity for those looking to gain an edge through game theory.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchups for Week 7:
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
The Cardinals started the season strong with a 3-0 record against the spread, including an impressive road win against the Dallas Cowboys. However, they have since suffered three consecutive losses by at least two touchdowns, indicating that they may be falling short of preseason expectations.
On the other hand, the Seahawks have limited opportunities for selection in the coming weeks. According to Mike Clay, the only other game where the Seahawks have at least a 70% chance of winning is in Week 10 against the Commanders. Considering this, the Seahawks appear to be the most logical choice for Week 7.
However, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks are currently being selected in a staggering 46% of remaining entries. If this percentage holds, it might be wise to consider alternative options based on game theory.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Fading Bill Belichick and the Patriots at home in the Eliminator Challenge would have seemed unthinkable in the past. However, this year, the Patriots are considered one of the worst teams in the NFL, ranking 27th according to ESPN Analytics. The Patriots have lost their past nine games as underdogs against the spread, often struggling against stronger teams.
The Bills are not only the biggest favorites according to the betting market but also according to Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. However, there are two factors to consider when choosing them: their future value and whether they have already been used in previous weeks.
Clay predicts that the Bills have at least a 75% chance of winning in six more games this season. This indicates that they have significant future value. Additionally, if you have already used the Bills in previous weeks, it might be wise to explore other options.
Alternative Picks
If you’re looking for an alternative pick for Week 7, consider the San Francisco 49ers. They are the third-biggest favorites in the betting market and have the second-best chance of winning according to Mike Clay. The choice ultimately depends on the size of your group. In smaller groups where the contest might end before Week 18, picking the best team is preferred. However, in larger groups likely to go all 18 weeks, the Las Vegas Raiders provide a good contrarian choice.
Clay believes that the Raiders have their best chance of winning any game this season, even on the road. The Chicago Bears are expected to start undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent, and their defense is one of the worst in the NFL. With limited favorable spreads in Week 7, the Raiders offer a good balance of win probability and lack of future value.
In conclusion, Week 7 of the Eliminator Challenge presents a challenging decision for participants. While the Seahawks and Bills are the top picks, game theory and strategic thinking should be considered. Exploring alternative options, such as the 49ers or Raiders, can provide an edge and increase your chances of success in this highly competitive challenge.