ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 7: Strategy, Advice, and Picks
Oct 18, 2023, 02:00 PM ET
Week 6 of the Eliminator Challenge provided plenty of drama, but the most popular selections managed to survive. The Miami Dolphins overcame a 14-0 deficit to defeat the Carolina Panthers and cover the spread, while the Buffalo Bills narrowly escaped defeat against the New York Giants. As we enter Week 7, it’s shaping up to be one of the most challenging weeks of the season, with no double-digit favorites for the first time since Week 2. Let’s take a closer look at the top picks and strategies for this week.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Seattle Seahawks are favored by eight points against the Arizona Cardinals, marking the first time Geno Smith has ever been favored by at least a touchdown in his NFL career. The Buffalo Bills are also favored by 8.5 points against the New England Patriots, making it the first time since Tom Brady’s first career start in 2001 that the Patriots are such underdogs at home.
Both the Seahawks and Bills are popular picks this week, but with the Bills already being used in the majority of entries, game theory could play a significant role in decision-making. The Seahawks, who have been largely unused, appear to be the most logical choice given their limited strong weeks remaining. However, with a staggering 46% of remaining entries selecting the Seahawks, it might be wise to consider alternative options.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Fading Bill Belichick at home in the Eliminator Challenge would have been unthinkable in the past, but this year, the New England Patriots are struggling and currently rank as one of the worst teams in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics. The Patriots have lost their past nine games as underdogs against the spread, often getting outmatched against superior teams. The Bills are the biggest favorites this week, both in the betting market and according to Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics.
The only concerns with picking the Bills are their future value, as they have six more games with at least a 75% chance to win, and the possibility that you might have already used them in previous weeks.
San Francisco 49ers or Las Vegas Raiders?
The third choice for Week 7 largely depends on the size of your group. If you’re in a smaller group where the contest might end before Week 18, it’s preferable to pick the best team available. In this case, the San Francisco 49ers, who are the third-biggest favorites in the betting market and have the second-best chance to win according to Mike Clay, would be the ideal choice.
However, if you’re in a larger group that is likely to go all 18 weeks, the Las Vegas Raiders could be a good contrarian pick. Despite being on the road, Clay gives the Raiders their best chance to win in any game this season. The Chicago Bears are expected to start undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent, and their defense is one of the worst in the NFL. With limited options in a week where most spreads are three points or below, the Raiders offer a good balance of win probability and lack of future value.
In conclusion, Week 7 of the Eliminator Challenge presents a unique challenge with no double-digit favorites. The Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills are the top picks this week, but considering their popularity and previous usage, it might be wise to explore alternative options. The San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders provide viable choices depending on the size of your group and your strategy for future weeks. Good luck with your picks!