College Football Week 4: Model Projections and Predictions
There’s no shortage of big games in college football this week. Ohio State goes to Notre Dame, Florida State goes to Clemson, and three Pac-12 games are pitting undefeated teams against each other. Will Deion Sanders’ Colorado make a statement or be exposed? Will Notre Dame get a rare win against a top-10 team? Which contenders will get upset? We’ll know a lot more about a lot more teams a week from now.
Let’s see what my model makes of all of Week 4’s big games. My model has point differentials and point totals for every FBS vs. FBS game. The model takes into account past performance, returning talent, and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 4 of the college football season, check out my best bets, which are based on my model’s projections.
Full Week 4 Model Projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
(Photo of Bo Nix: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)
Now let’s dive into some of the key matchups and predictions for Week 4:
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
This is undoubtedly one of the most anticipated games of the week. Ohio State, a perennial powerhouse, faces off against Notre Dame, a team looking to make a statement. According to my model, Ohio State is projected to win with a margin of victory of 10 points. The BetMGM spread at publish time is Ohio State -7.5, indicating that my model sees value in betting on Ohio State to cover the spread. The projected total points for this game is 55, with the BetMGM total set at 58.5. This suggests that the model leans towards the under.
Florida State vs. Clemson
Another exciting matchup features Florida State taking on Clemson. Clemson has been dominant in recent years, but Florida State is looking to pull off an upset. However, my model predicts a comfortable victory for Clemson with a projected margin of victory of 14 points. The BetMGM spread at publish time is Clemson -10.5, suggesting that my model sees value in betting on Clemson to cover the spread. The projected total points for this game is 60, with the BetMGM total set at 58.5. This indicates that the model leans towards the over.
Pac-12 Undefeated Showdowns
Three Pac-12 games this week feature undefeated teams going head-to-head. These matchups will have significant implications for conference standings and potential playoff aspirations. Let’s take a look at the projections for these games:
– Oregon vs. UCLA: My model projects Oregon to win by 7 points, with a projected total of 58 points. The BetMGM spread at publish time is Oregon -3, indicating potential value in betting on Oregon to cover the spread.
– Arizona State vs. Utah: My model projects Arizona State to win by 3 points, with a projected total of 52 points. The BetMGM spread at publish time is Arizona State -2.5, suggesting potential value in betting on Arizona State to cover the spread.
– Stanford vs. USC: My model projects USC to win by 10 points, with a projected total of 60 points. The BetMGM spread at publish time is USC -7, indicating potential value in betting on USC to cover the spread.
These Pac-12 showdowns are expected to be closely contested, and the outcomes could have a significant impact on the conference race.
Conclusion
Week 4 of college football brings us several exciting matchups and potential upsets. By using my model’s projections and comparing them to the BetMGM lines, we can gain valuable insights into the games and potentially find value in betting. Whether it’s Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, Florida State vs. Clemson, or the Pac-12 undefeated showdowns, there’s no shortage of excitement and drama on the college football field. Stay tuned for an action-packed week of football.