Actual Offensive Runs Above Average: Evaluating Hitters’ Performance
Introduction:
When assessing a hitter’s productivity, it is essential to consider their actual offensive runs above average. This metric measures how effective a hitter is in generating runs compared to the league average, accounting for the situational context. In this analysis, we will examine the actual offensive runs above average for the last month, providing insights into the top performers and those who have struggled. By incorporating both expected and actual stats, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of these hitters’ abilities.
The Top Performers:
1. Jake Meyers: With a .321 batting average, a .382 on-base percentage, 10 runs, and 15 RBI, Meyers has been exceptional over the last month. He currently ranks 12th on the list, yet he is only rostered in 34% of leagues. Given his secure playing time with the Astros and his position in their lineup, Meyers is a must-add player in all formats.
2. Eddie Rosario: Although better suited for deeper formats due to his platoon role, Rosario has been productive with 19 runs and 17 RBI in limited at-bats. His slugging rate suggests a potential 30-homer pace, making him a valuable addition for those seeking power on a budget.
3. Dylan Moore: While Moore experienced a slump in the past week, his overall performance has been impressive. With a slash line of .284/.410/.597 in the first 22 days of the period, Moore offers versatility for fantasy lineups. However, his expected stats may indicate some cause for concern.
4. Josh Bell: Bell has demonstrated his productivity with a .323 batting average, 17 RBI, and an OBP over .380 in the last month. Although his slugging rate is decent, his isolated slugging raises some concerns. Nevertheless, Bell’s ability to make contact and his historical performance make him a valuable asset in fantasy leagues.
5. Ty France: Despite his decent power and average, France’s expected average falls below .200, making him a risky option. Given the overall struggles in MLB hitting, France’s contributions over the last month should be considered. However, caution is advised when considering him for fantasy rosters.
Key Takeaways:
Meyers and Bell are the top priorities for fantasy managers looking to improve their offensive production. Rosario can also provide value, particularly for those in need of power hitters. However, it is advisable to stay away from Moore and France due to concerns raised by their expected stats.
Struggling Hitters:
1. Elly De La Cruz: De La Cruz ranks 112th out of 113 hitters in terms of offensive runs above average, with a deficit of 10 runs compared to expectations. While his stolen base numbers remain valuable, his poor on-base percentage and high strikeout rate indicate significant challenges. Fantasy managers should consider trading De La Cruz if they can secure a return close to preseason expectations.
2. Michael Harris II: Harris’ subpar plate discipline has become apparent in his recent performance. Although he had opportunities in a strong lineup in 2023, his current role, including batting leadoff for the Braves, raises doubts about his long-term potential. With a low OBP and limited production in steals and homers, it is difficult to have confidence in Harris as a fantasy asset.
3. Randy Arozarena: Despite showing some power, Arozarena’s lack of stolen bases and high strikeout rate are cause for concern. His overall numbers reflect a decline in performance, making him a risky option for fantasy managers.
4. Riley Greene: Greene’s recent performance has been disappointing, with a high strikeout rate and poor expected averages. While he has shown potential with occasional home runs, his overall performance has declined. Fantasy managers should consider dropping Greene in favor of players like Meyers, who have demonstrated consistent success.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, Ozzie Albies, and Jose Altuve: These established players have struggled immensely over the last month. Goldschmidt’s performance has been worse than his teammate Nolan Arenado’s, suggesting a potential decline in his abilities. Albies has lost his power, and his expected ISO remains alarmingly low. While it may be tempting to trade these players, their track records indicate the potential for a turnaround. Fantasy managers should hold onto Albies and Altuve but explore trading options for the rest.
Conclusion:
By examining actual offensive runs above average, fantasy managers can make informed decisions about their rosters. Players like Meyers and Bell offer significant value, while caution is advised with Moore and France. It may be wise to trade struggling hitters like De La Cruz, Harris, and Arozarena, while holding onto established players like Albies and Altuve in hopes of a turnaround. Remember, always prioritize value and potential return when making roster adjustments.