The Fantasy Football Breakout Player series concludes with a focus on breakout tight ends. Instead of providing a ranking, we will present the case for and against each tight end becoming a TE1. We will also provide a likelihood score for each player’s chances of reaching TE1 status.
Rookies and Non-Qualifiers
Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers had a solid rookie season, finishing as TE8 with 98 receptions for 732 yards and 2 touchdowns. While there is room for improvement, it is unlikely that Freiermuth will jump more than a few spots in the rankings. The emergence of George Pickens and a bounce-back season from Diontae Johnson could also impact his production.
Cole Kmet of the Chicago Bears finished one spot higher than Freiermuth last season. However, with the addition of D.J. Moore and the need for a two-touchdown regression, Kmet’s ceiling as a TE1 is limited.
Rookies such as Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills and Michael Mayer of the Las Vegas Raiders offer value but do not qualify as breakout players in this context.
Top 5 Breakout Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Tennessee Titans has impressive statistics that support his case for becoming a TE1. He led all tight ends with 20+ targets in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) and ranked third in Yards After the Catch per Reception (YAC/REC) and Target%. Okonkwo is a top target for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and the Titans recognize his upside. However, his limited playing time and need for improvement in blocking and routes could hinder his chances of reaching TE1 status. Likelihood score: 8/10.
Greg Dulcich of the Denver Broncos possesses a great combination of size, speed, and strength. He ranks well in Percent of Team’s Air Yards (TmAirYD%) and is the top tight end option for the Broncos. However, the historical tendency of quarterback Russell Wilson to rely on two primary wide receivers and Dulcich’s average performance in YPRR and YAC% could limit his chances of becoming a TE1. Likelihood score: 6.5/10.
Irv Smith of the Cincinnati Bengals finished the 2020 season strong with five touchdowns in the final six games. As a second-round pick, Smith has the potential to be a matchup problem for defenses. The Bengals’ strong offense and the presence of quarterback Joe Burrow bode well for Smith’s chances. However, competition with Tyler Boyd and concerns about his health could hinder his path to TE1 status. Likelihood score: 4.5/10.
Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals showed promise towards the end of last season when he filled in for the injured Zach Ertz. With Ertz’s uncertain status and McBride’s receiving abilities, he has the potential to be a TE1. However, he will need high YAC or touchdown numbers to compete with other top tight ends. The uncertainty surrounding quarterback Kyler Murray’s return and competition from other receiving options could also impact McBride’s chances. Likelihood score: 3.5/10.
Jelani Woods of the Indianapolis Colts stands out due to his size and athleticism. He is a red zone threat and has potential as a seam target for rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. However, Woods’ route running and blocking need improvement, and he may not receive enough playing time to be a starter. Additionally, he faces competition from other receiving options in a run-heavy offense. Likelihood score: 3/10.
In conclusion, while these tight ends have the potential to break out and become TE1s, there are various factors that could hinder their chances. It will be interesting to see how their seasons unfold and if they can surpass expectations.