The Zero Starting Pitcher Approach: Finding Value and Flexibility in Pitching
Introduction:
In March, I recommended the zero starting pitcher approach, which involves not drafting a starting pitcher in the first five rounds and avoiding them through the seventh round. This strategy aims to maximize value and flexibility in pitching. Let’s analyze the current top 30 starters and see where they were selected in March.
Finding Value in Late Rounds:
Out of the current top 30 starters, 20 were drafted after pick 100 or not drafted at all. This means that by not investing heavily in starters early on, fantasy managers had a shot at 57% of the top starters through the first half of the season. This highlights the unpredictability of pitchers and emphasizes the value of waiting to draft them.
Injury Risk and Impact:
While injuries are always a risk in fantasy sports, pitchers being erased from your team due to injury is not as catastrophic as losing an impact hitter. Year to date, there have been twice as many top starters found on waivers compared to top hitters. This suggests that even if you miss out on some high achievers due to injury, there is still a good chance of finding quality replacements on waivers.
The Issue of Innings:
Another factor to consider is the decrease in innings pitched by starters. Even if you find a pitcher on waivers, they are unlikely to be someone who can throw 200 innings. However, due to the decreasing number of pitchers who reach that milestone, this does not significantly impact your team’s performance. Additionally, if certain pitchers have their innings managed during the stretch run, it becomes easier to find replacement frames when needed.
Three Pillars of the ZeroSP Strategy:
1. Injuries have a lesser impact on teams that prioritize hitting over starting pitching.
2. Starters are pitching fewer innings when healthy, reducing their overall value.
3. Top pitchers are harder to predict than top hitters and are more likely to be found on waivers.
Targeting High Achievers at Cost:
Despite not investing heavily in starting pitching, there have been several surprisingly high achievers that could have been targeted at a lower cost. Examples include Garrett Crochet, Blanco, Gavin Stone, and Christopher Sanchez. These players showcased potential early on and could have been added to fantasy teams at a reasonable price.
Flexibility and Loyalty:
By avoiding paying a premium for starting pitching, fantasy managers gain flexibility. They are not stuck with underperforming pitchers they paid for, as all starters on their team are churnable from the start of the season. This allows for continuous improvement through waiver wire additions and fosters a competitive roster.
The Live Waiver Wire:
Currently, there are several intriguing pitchers available on the waiver wire. Mitchell Parker, Jameson Taillon, Andre Pallante, Charlie Morton, Trevor Rogers, and Jose Quintana are all options that fantasy managers can consider. Cross-referencing expected stats via Statcast can help identify highly recommended pitchers with low roster percentages, such as Taillon and Pallante.
Continual Pitching Improvement:
By adding a pitcher each week and hitting on a third of them, fantasy managers can remain competitive in pitching regardless of their draft day spending. This emphasizes the importance of actively managing the pitching staff throughout the season and utilizing the waiver wire to its full potential.
Conclusion:
The zero starting pitcher approach offers fantasy managers the opportunity to find value and flexibility in their pitching staff. By avoiding early investments in starting pitchers, managers can capitalize on the unpredictability of the position and find top performers on waivers. Additionally, the decrease in innings pitched by starters and the availability of viable replacements further support this strategy. Continual improvement through targeted acquisitions and loyalty-free roster management enhances the overall competitiveness of a team.