Liverpool’s forward line has been a topic of scrutiny, with Darwin Nunez being the center of attention. However, the performance of the entire attacking unit has the potential to be an interesting story for Liverpool’s summer. While their attacking options were initially considered a strength, a late-season spike in wastefulness dashed their title hopes. Fatigue played a role, but questions about Jurgen Klopp’s frontline are not unfounded.
Liverpool currently leads the Premier League table for non-penalty xG generated this season, with Man City and Arsenal following closely behind. However, they rank third in actual goals scored, reflecting a sense of profligacy that is also evident in the underlying numbers. In terms of overperforming their non-penalty xG, City and Arsenal are the top two teams, while Liverpool underperforms and ranks 16th in the league.
It is worth noting that Arsenal has scored significantly more goals than their post-shot xG suggests, while Liverpool has only slightly overperformed their PSxG. This aligns with the perception that Liverpool has not been particularly deadly in front of goal this season. This lack of lethal finishing can be attributed to the composition of their forward line, with Mohamed Salah and Diogo Jota as the main “killers” and Nunez, Diaz, and Gakpo as less ruthless supporting players.
Among Liverpool’s attackers, Jota is the only one who has overperformed his non-penalty xG this season. Diaz and Nunez have been the worst finishers among the top three clubs’ most used attackers. In contrast, Arsenal and City have had multiple forwards overperform their xG, with their worst performers still in respectable territory.
It is unclear whether this issue stems from Klopp’s high-volume chance creation or if it is a problem that new assistant manager Arne Slot can solve. However, it is likely that Liverpool will make tweaks in their forward areas during the summer transfer window.
While Nunez’s departure seems unlikely due to a lack of suitable suitors, Diaz is the most probable candidate to leave due to his contract situation and interest from PSG and Barcelona. Liverpool is not actively looking to push Diaz out of the club. The priority for Liverpool in terms of incoming transfers would be a young, flexible forward who can consistently finish chances. Recent links to Johan Bakayoko and Crysencio Summerville make sense in this context. Liverpool’s recruitment staff understands the need for prolific additions like Salah and Jota rather than less-prolific signings in recent years.
Ultimately, one smart signing could make a significant difference in Liverpool’s efficiency in front of goal. This would give Slot the right tools to address the inefficiencies that have plagued the team in the latter part of the season.