As Euro 2024 progresses from the group stage to the knockout games, the dreaded penalty shootout becomes a topic of discussion. To shed light on this high-pressure situation, BBC Sport and Opta have analyzed data from every penalty kick in European Championship shootouts since the tournament’s inception in 1976.
One of the most famous penalty kicks in Euro history is the Panenka, named after Antonin Panenka of Czechoslovakia. In the 1976 final against West Germany, Panenka waited for the goalkeeper to dive before delicately chipping the ball down the middle to secure victory. However, going down the middle is generally less effective than shooting to the left. Statistics reveal that 82% of penalties aimed to the left find the net, compared to 73% on the right and 72% down the middle. The main risk of going central is hitting the woodwork or missing the target entirely.
Interestingly, goalkeepers have a 100% success rate when it comes to taking penalties in European Championship shootouts. Although this is based on a small sample size, with Portugal’s Ricardo scoring against England’s David James in the Euro 2004 quarter-final, it highlights their composure and skill from the spot. Defenders and forwards have a similar success rate of approximately 79%, while midfielders have a slightly lower rate of 75%.
When it comes to overall shootout records, England has the worst record, with only one win out of five and a conversion rate of 69%. This includes their heartbreaking defeat to Italy in the Euro 2020 final. Spain and Italy have won the most shootouts, with four victories each, but have also participated in the most, with six and seven shootouts respectively. The Czech Republic has a perfect record in shootouts, winning all three they have been involved in, including Czechoslovakia.
The fourth kick in a penalty shootout is often where it goes wrong. While kicks one, two, three, and five have conversion rates ranging from 80% to 82%, the fourth kick lags behind at only 63%. The pressure tends to be highest at this point, with the second shot of the fourth round having a success rate of only 48%. Sudden-death penalties, which occur after the initial five rounds, have an overall conversion rate of 77%.
Taking the first penalty in a shootout doesn’t provide a significant advantage. In fact, 11 out of the 22 shootouts in European Championships have been won by the team taking the first penalty. The preferred foot of a player doesn’t make a noticeable difference in their success rate, as both left-footed and right-footed players score 77% of their penalties.
There have been instances where a player has been brought on in the last two minutes of extra time specifically to take a penalty in the shootout, but it has never been successful. Italy’s Simone Zaza missed against Germany in the Euro 2016 quarter-finals, and at Euro 2020, Rodri missed for Spain against Switzerland, while Jadon Sancho hit the post and Marcus Rashford’s kick was saved for England against Italy.
Looking ahead to England’s potential shootout in the knockout stages of Euro 2024, their squad presents a mixed bag when it comes to penalty success. Harry Kane has the most experience, with 86 kicks taken and a success rate of 88%. Ivan Toney boasts an impressive record of 37 goals from 40 attempts (93%), while Bukayo Saka has scored 87% of his penalties. On the other end of the spectrum, Ollie Watkins, Kieran Trippier, and Declan Rice have less impressive records. As for who should be in goal for penalties, Dean Henderson has the best save percentage at 39%, followed by Jordan Pickford at 11% and Aaron Ramsdale at 5%.
In conclusion, as Euro 2024 enters the knockout stages, the penalty shootout becomes a crucial aspect of the tournament. Understanding the statistics and trends can provide teams with valuable insights into how to approach this high-pressure situation.