Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
Notes after NFL Week 1
Can the Jets still make the playoffs?
The New York Jets may have lost Aaron Rodgers for the season, but all hope isn’t lost because of how stout their defense is. The Jets, despite beating the Bills, have seen their playoff odds drop about 15 percent. Subjectively, I don’t think that’s enough for the level of play that can be expected going forward from Zach Wilson, but my model loves this Jets defense, and they’re going to keep them in a lot of games throughout the season. New York is projected to win 8.1 games.
If the Jets added a better quarterback to their roster, say Jacoby Brissett, their projected wins rise to 8.6 and would have a 44.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.
What team made the biggest jump after Week 1?
The Miami Dolphins won big on Sunday after beating the Los Angeles Chargers in a thriller. The Dolphins certainly benefit from the Jets losing Rodgers, but also, the Chargers were a 50/50 playoff team and having a head-to-head win could go a long way at the end of the season. After Week 1, the Dolphins saw their playoff odds improve by just under 20%.
Who is your new Super Bowl favorite?
The Philadelphia Eagles have officially overtaken the Kansas City Chiefs as Super Bowl favorites, but it’s not by much. Heading into Week 1, the Chiefs had a 0.5 percent edge over the Eagles, but with the Chiefs losing at home to the Lions last Thursday, the Eagles are now the most likely Super Bowl Champion at 14.4 percent while the Chiefs come in at 14.2%. The Chiefs did play without two of their three best players (Chris Jones and Travis Kelce).
Super Bowl Projections
xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projection to make playoffs and SB win is chances for each team to win the Super Bowl
Super Bowl Odds
(Photo of AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
In conclusion, based on the latest data and simulations from my NFL betting model, the New York Jets still have a chance to make the playoffs despite losing Aaron Rodgers. Their strong defense will keep them competitive in many games throughout the season. Adding a better quarterback like Jacoby Brissett would significantly improve their chances of making the playoffs.
The Miami Dolphins made a big jump in their playoff odds after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1. This victory, combined with the Jets’ loss of Rodgers, has boosted their chances of securing a playoff spot.
The Philadelphia Eagles have emerged as the new Super Bowl favorites, overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs by a small margin. The Chiefs’ loss to the Lions in Week 1 contributed to this shift in favorability. However, it’s worth noting that the Chiefs were missing key players Chris Jones and Travis Kelce in that game.
These projections are based on extensive simulations and data analysis, providing valuable insights into the potential outcomes of the NFL season. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these projections evolve and whether they align with the actual results on the field.
Overall, these projections offer a glimpse into the potential future of the NFL season and provide fans with an exciting perspective on their favorite teams’ chances of success.