Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
Notes after NFL Week 2
Why did the Chiefs jump ahead of the Eagles? Kansas City hasn’t been that impressive
Another week, and another Super Bowl favorite per my simulations. The Kansas City Chiefs have regained the top spot after gaining less than a single percent with their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2.
The Chiefs were able to become the favorites again because of a lackluster performance by the Philadelphia Eagles at home against the Minnesota Vikings. The Eagles benefitted from a plethora of Vikings’ fumbles and didn’t manage to win by a margin. The Eagles dropped to fourth in Super Bowl odds, but the problem is that two NFC foes, including a division rival, jumped them.
Are the Cowboys the best team in the NFC?
That division rival happens to be the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are now the NFC favorite and second most likely team to win the Super Bowl come February. The Cowboys have had two dominant victories against weaker competition but in the NFL, that can go a long way. The San Francisco 49ers are sandwiched between the Cowboys and Eagles in third.
How will Joe Burrow’s injury change the AFC?
The Cincinnati Bengals have fallen to just 44.6% to make the playoffs after their 0-2 start. To make matters worse, this number is assuming we get Joe Burrow back to full health in three weeks while in the next three weeks, he’s at a 75% chance of playing. This number is subjective, but it goes to show how difficult the road will be for the Bengals if their star quarterback can’t get back to full health in the near future.
But the most interesting stat from my simulations this week, in my opinion, is that 27 teams have at least a 14.7% chance to make the playoffs but twelve of those teams have less than a 28% chance to make the playoffs.
Super Bowl Projections
xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projection to make playoffs and SB win is chances for each team to win the Super Bowl
Super Bowl Odds
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
In my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs have emerged as the favorites after their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2. Despite a lackluster performance by the Philadelphia Eagles against the Minnesota Vikings, the Chiefs were able to regain the top spot due to their consistent performance. The Eagles dropped to fourth in Super Bowl odds, while the Dallas Cowboys emerged as the NFC favorite and second most likely team to win the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers are currently ranked third in the NFC.
The Cincinnati Bengals, on the other hand, have faced a setback with a 0-2 start and Joe Burrow’s injury. Their chances of making the playoffs have dropped to just 44.6%, assuming Burrow returns to full health in three weeks. However, if Burrow is unable to recover fully, the Bengals’ road to the playoffs will become even more challenging.
One interesting statistic from my simulations is that 27 teams have at least a 14.7% chance of making the playoffs. However, twelve of these teams have less than a 28% chance of securing a playoff spot. This highlights the competitiveness and uncertainty of the NFL season.
Looking ahead, my projections for the Super Bowl indicate that the Kansas City Chiefs are currently the favorites. However, it’s important to note that these projections are based on simulations and may change as the season progresses. The xWins metric represents the expected number of wins for each team, while the Playoffs projection indicates the likelihood of making the playoffs. The SB win percentage represents each team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.
As the NFL season unfolds, it will be interesting to see how these projections evolve and whether any unexpected teams emerge as strong contenders for the Super Bowl. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the season progresses.
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)