Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
Notes on Super Bowl odds and projections
What team under 70 percent to make playoffs do you think has the best chance of making playoffs?
Per my numbers, the answer is the Cleveland Browns but Deshaun Watson’s shoulder injury makes me want to stay away from that one. So, I’ll go with the Seahawks. The Seahawks defense has been a pleasant surprise this year, and they have the weapons on offense to elevate Geno Smith’s play into a playoff contender. It also helps that the Seahawks are in the worst conference to make a run. A sleeper team, subjectively? The Minnesota Vikings.
Kansas City is your new favorite to win the Super Bowl. What is different about this Chiefs team than the team that has won two of the last four?
I’m pretty confident this will be the best defense the Chiefs have had since Patrick Mahomes took the reins under center. The Chiefs currently rank third in defensive success rate, including third against the pass. We all know how special Mahomes and this offense have been, but now the defense is starting to catch up, and that’s a terrifying thought.
What team has surprised you the most so far through 8 weeks?
This has to be the Houston Texans for me. My model was not high on them coming into the season — I’m not sure anyone is high on a team with a rookie quarterback and a new head coach — but C.J. Stroud has been excellent, and they have more than a puncher’s chance to make the playoffs. This was a team that I thought the Arizona Cardinals were going to be rooting to lose so they and the Chicago Bears could have the first four picks of next year’s NFL Draft. Instead, Stroud and DeMeco Ryans are the face of an actual playoff contender in the AFC.
Super Bowl Projections
xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projected chance to make the playoffs, and Super Bowl is the chance for each team to win the Super Bowl.
(Photo of CJ Stroud: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
As we approach the midpoint of the NFL season, it’s time to take a look at the updated Super Bowl and playoff projections. Using my NFL betting model, which takes into account various factors and data from this year’s games, we can get a glimpse of which teams are likely to make a deep playoff run and potentially win the Super Bowl.
One team that stands out as having a good chance of making the playoffs despite being under 70 percent is the Cleveland Browns. However, the recent shoulder injury to Deshaun Watson raises concerns about their ability to secure a playoff spot. As a result, the Seattle Seahawks emerge as a strong contender. The Seahawks have shown impressive defensive prowess this season and possess a talented offense that can elevate Geno Smith’s performance. Additionally, being in a weaker conference gives them an advantage in making a playoff run. Another team worth mentioning as a sleeper is the Minnesota Vikings.
In terms of Super Bowl favorites, the Kansas City Chiefs have taken the lead. What sets this Chiefs team apart from their previous championship-winning squads is their improved defense. With a current ranking of third in defensive success rate, including third against the pass, the Chiefs are no longer solely reliant on their high-powered offense led by Patrick Mahomes. The combination of an elite offense and an increasingly formidable defense makes them a formidable force in the Super Bowl race.
One team that has surprised many through the first eight weeks of the season is the Houston Texans. Despite low expectations due to having a rookie quarterback and a new head coach, C.J. Stroud has exceeded expectations, and the team has a legitimate chance of making the playoffs. This is a significant turnaround, as many anticipated the Arizona Cardinals and the Chicago Bears to struggle, potentially securing high draft picks for next year. Instead, the Texans, led by Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans, have emerged as a playoff contender in the AFC.
Now, let’s take a look at the Super Bowl projections. These projections provide an estimate of each team’s expected wins, chances of making the playoffs, and their likelihood of winning the Super Bowl. As the season progresses, these projections will continue to evolve based on updated data and performance.
In conclusion, as we approach the halfway point of the NFL season, it’s clear that the landscape of teams vying for a Super Bowl title is starting to take shape. The Cleveland Browns and Seattle Seahawks are teams to watch as they strive to secure playoff spots. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have emerged as the favorites to win it all, thanks to their improved defense complementing their potent offense. Lastly, the Houston Texans have defied expectations and are making a strong case for a playoff berth. As the season unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how these projections evolve and which teams ultimately make it to the Super Bowl.