Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
Super Bowl Projections
xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projected chance to make the playoffs and Super Bowl is the chance for each team to win the Super Bowl.
(Photo of Nick Bosa: Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
As the NFL season progresses, teams are jockeying for playoff position and dreaming of a Super Bowl appearance. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated Super Bowl and playoff projections based on the latest data and simulations.
AFC Projections
1. Kansas City Chiefs
xWins: 12.4
Playoffs: 99.9%
Super Bowl: 28.5%
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to be the team to beat in the AFC. Led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, they have a strong offense and a solid defense. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 99.9% and a Super Bowl chance of 28.5%, the Chiefs are the clear favorites in the conference.
2. Buffalo Bills
xWins: 11.5
Playoffs: 95.2%
Super Bowl: 18.7%
The Buffalo Bills have emerged as a serious contender in the AFC. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken a big step forward this season, and their defense is one of the best in the league. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 95.2% and a Super Bowl chance of 18.7%, the Bills are a team to watch out for.
3. Baltimore Ravens
xWins: 10.9
Playoffs: 88.3%
Super Bowl: 14.2%
The Baltimore Ravens have had a solid season so far, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson. Their strong running game and stout defense make them a tough team to beat. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 88.3% and a Super Bowl chance of 14.2%, the Ravens are a legitimate threat in the AFC.
4. Tennessee Titans
xWins: 10.5
Playoffs: 81.7%
Super Bowl: 11.1%
The Tennessee Titans have been a consistent playoff team in recent years, and this season is no different. Led by running back Derrick Henry, they have a strong ground game that can wear down opposing defenses. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 81.7% and a Super Bowl chance of 11.1%, the Titans are a team that should not be overlooked.
NFC Projections
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
xWins: 12.3
Playoffs: 99.8%
Super Bowl: 27.9%
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by quarterback Tom Brady, are the defending Super Bowl champions and are showing no signs of slowing down. With a stacked roster on both sides of the ball, the Buccaneers are the team to beat in the NFC. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 99.8% and a Super Bowl chance of 27.9%, the Buccaneers are the clear favorites in the conference.
2. Los Angeles Rams
xWins: 11.6
Playoffs: 94.6%
Super Bowl: 17.9%
The Los Angeles Rams have one of the best defenses in the league and an explosive offense led by quarterback Matthew Stafford. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 94.6% and a Super Bowl chance of 17.9%, the Rams are a team that can make a deep playoff run.
3. Green Bay Packers
xWins: 11.2
Playoffs: 89.7%
Super Bowl: 15.1%
The Green Bay Packers, led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, are always a threat in the NFC. With a high-powered offense and a solid defense, the Packers have the potential to make a Super Bowl run. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 89.7% and a Super Bowl chance of 15.1%, the Packers are a team to watch out for.
4. Dallas Cowboys
xWins: 10.8
Playoffs: 83.2%
Super Bowl: 12.3%
The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the surprises of the season so far. Led by quarterback Dak Prescott, they have a high-powered offense that can put up points in a hurry. With a projected chance of making the playoffs at 83.2% and a Super Bowl chance of 12.3%, the Cowboys are a team that should not be underestimated.
Super Bowl Predictions
Based on the projections and simulations, the Super Bowl matchup is predicted to be between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This would be a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, where the Buccaneers emerged victorious.
In this simulation, the Kansas City Chiefs have a slight edge over the Buccaneers, with a Super Bowl chance of 28.5% compared to the Buccaneers’ 27.9%. However, as we all know, anything can happen in the NFL, and these projections are just one possible outcome.
Conclusion
As the NFL season continues to unfold, it will be exciting to see how these projections play out. Will the favorites live up to expectations, or will there be some surprises along the way? Only time will tell. But one thing is for sure, the race for the Super Bowl is heating up, and football fans everywhere are in for a thrilling ride.