Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
Notes after NFL Week 5
So, we’re looking at a Super Bowl LIV rematch between the Chiefs and 49ers?
As things stand right now, the 49ers and Chiefs seem to be on a collision course for the Super Bowl. The 49ers dismantled the Cowboys and the Eagles have yet to put it all together. Maybe the Eagles can give the 49ers a run for their money but outside of that in the NFC, I’m not sure anyone is complete to take down San Francisco. As for the AFC, the conference runs through Patrick Mahomes. They’ve been the best AFC team over the last five years and nothing has changed my or my model’s mind in early 2023. As things stand right now, it’s hard for me to see another matchup in the Super Bowl other than the two best teams in football.
What happened to the Bills?
Well, the trip across the pond to face the Jaguars last week was not kind to Buffalo. Not only did they lose on the scoreboard (and their Super Bowl odds dropped six percent), but they also lost Matt Milano and a few other defensive players. Milano is a huge piece to their defense and while I still have the Bills as a top 5 football team in the NFL, I’m a little skeptical of their ability to last to the end of the season. Factor in that they already have two losses to AFC teams and the Dolphins will be pushing them in the division for the entire season and the Bills have a lot of work cut out for them.
How has your model adjusted to the hot start from the Dolphins?
The Dolphins are now up to third in Super Bowl odds, ahead of the Eagles in Cowboys in the Top 5. I’m skeptical of their defense, but the offense is electric. As long as Tua and Tyreek Hill stay healthy, the Dolphins will be a tough out. The Bills fell to sixth; the Lions moved up to seventh — leapfrogging the Ravens — and the Browns and Chargers round out the Top 10. There wasn’t much movement outside the top contenders this past week.
How will the race to make the playoffs shake out?
The Super Bowl race might be a little “dull,” but the playoff race surely won’t be. Seventeen teams have a 73% and 15% chance of making the playoffs. That will cause a lot of chaos as we get into November and December. Every game matters when it comes to making the playoffs. For instance, the Ravens dropped their game to the Steelers on Sunday and saw their playoff odds drop from 86.3% to 72.5%.
Super Bowl Projections
xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projected chance to make the playoffs and Super Bowl is the chance for each team to win the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Odds from BetMGM
Odds update live.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
In conclusion, based on my NFL betting model, it appears that a Super Bowl LIV rematch between the Chiefs and 49ers is likely. The 49ers have been dominant in the NFC, while the Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, continue to assert their dominance in the AFC. However, there are other teams such as the Dolphins, Bills, Lions, Browns, and Chargers that are also emerging as strong contenders. The playoff race is expected to be highly competitive, with many teams vying for a spot. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these projections evolve and if any surprises await us in the Super Bowl.