It might be happening away from the gaze of the live television cameras, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to play for in the Scottish Premiership’s bottom six. Four sides at the foot of the table are split by just six points, with all bottom-half sides set to play each other across their final post-split fixtures. Box-office stuff. Heading into the first round of a thrilling five-part finale, data specialists Neilsen’s Gracenote have used their Euro Club Index to help us work out which clubs are most likely to occupy the bottom two spots.
As it stands, 37 points would be enough to finish 10th this term, although post-split fixtures can sometimes nudge the magic number up. Gracenote believe an end-of-season total of 41 offers a 100% chance of guaranteed survival, so it is fair to assume seventh-placed Livingston – with their current tally of 42 – are safe. The rest have work to do, though. Some more than others…
Motherwell (8th, 37pts) Chance of direct relegation: 0% Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 3% Motherwell have reversed their fortunes since the departure of Steven Hammell and appointment of Stuart Kettlewell, losing just twice in nine games and picking up 16 points on the way. Top scorer Kevin van Veen has 24 goals to his name and one more win will surely be enough for them.
St Johnstone (9th, 33pts) Chance of direct relegation: 1% Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 15% St Johnstone are in freefall, having picked up three points from the last 21 on offer and no wins in seven. Interim manager Steven MacLean has been in charge since Callum Davidson left by mutual consent last month and has led the team to a draw against 10-man Hibernian in his first and only game. Gracenote still gives them just a 1% chance of direct relegation and an 84% chance of guaranteed safety.
Dundee United (10th, 31pts) Chance of direct relegation: 6% Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 29% Jim Goodwin has been in charge at Dundee United since February and has led them to three consecutive victories, shooting the team up to 10th. Gracenote forecasts they have a 65% chance of guaranteed safety, despite currently being level on points with 11th-placed Kilmarnock.
Kilmarnock (11th, 31pts) Chance of direct relegation: 16% Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 41% Kilmarnock have five points from their away form this season and Gracenote believes they are the most likely to face the relegation play-off. However, they have collected 26 of their 31 points at home and their only away win of the season came in their last fixture before the split at St Mirren a fortnight ago.
Ross County (12th, 27pts) Chance of direct relegation: 76% Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 13% Ross County have four points to make up on two sides if they have any hope of finishing 10th. Gracenote doesn’t give them much of chance of securing guaranteed safety – 11% to be exact – but they have shown they are capable of pulling out results in high-pressure games, with five of their seven wins this term coming against current bottom-six sides.