Premier League Title Race: Predicting the Winner with 10 Games Remaining
After a thrilling draw between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield on Sunday, the Premier League title race is heating up with just 10 games left to play. For the first time since 2014, only one point separates the top three teams after 28 games. It looks like this race will go down to the wire.
The top three teams, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City, will not play again in the league for three weeks due to the FA Cup quarter-finals and an international break. They will return to action on Sunday, 31 March when Liverpool faces Brighton and Manchester City hosts Arsenal.
With this break, fans have plenty of time to over-analyze every permutation of the title race. To help break it down, BBC Sport, in collaboration with data experts Nielsen’s Gracenote, have analyzed the match-by-match projections to see who is projected for glory or heartbreak.
Current table:
1. Arsenal – 64 points
2. Liverpool – 64 points
3. Manchester City – 63 points
If teams are level at the end of 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference, and if still level, goals scored.
Remaining fixtures:
– March: Brighton (H), Arsenal (H), Manchester City (A)
– April: Sheffield United (H), Aston Villa (H), Luton (H), Manchester United (A), Crystal Palace (A), Brighton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Luton (H), Aston Villa (H), Fulham (A), Tottenham (A), Wolves (A), West Ham (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Tottenham (A)
– May: Tottenham (H), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (H), Aston Villa (A), Fulham (A), Manchester United (A), Wolves (H), West Ham (H), Everton (H), Everton (A), Brighton (A), Chelsea (H)
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side is in formidable form as they aim for an English top-flight record of four consecutive titles. They have won 10 out of their last 13 league games since their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa in December.
Liverpool, on the other hand, has only suffered one league defeat in nine games so far this year, a 3-1 loss to Arsenal on 4 February. Jurgen Klopp’s team still has a trip to Goodison Park for the Merseyside derby to fit into their busy schedule.
As for Arsenal, although they currently sit at the top of the table, data experts at Nielsen’s Gracenote believe that the title battle is a “two-horse race” between Manchester City and Liverpool. They rate City and Liverpool higher and consider Arsenal’s remaining fixtures to be “trickier.”
According to Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model, Manchester City is projected to finish with 87 points, Liverpool with 86 points, and Arsenal with 83 points. Gracenote’s Euro Club Index estimates also suggest a similar outcome, with Manchester City having a 47% chance of winning the title, Liverpool with 35%, and Arsenal with 19%.
Looking back at previous seasons, there have been only a few three-way title races where teams were separated by just two points towards the end of a 38-game season. In the 2013-14 season, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Chelsea were separated by two points. Manchester City ultimately won the title. In the 2001-02 season, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point behind. Arsenal went on to win the title. In the 1995-96 season, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Liverpool were level on points with eight games remaining. Manchester United emerged as the champions.
If there is a tie at the end of the season, the title will be decided based on goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head matches, and away goals in the head-to-head record.
With 10 games left to play, there are sure to be plenty of twists and turns in this exciting Premier League title race. Fans can expect nail-biting moments and intense competition until the final day of the campaign on 19 May.