The Premier League title race is heating up as Arsenal’s 2-2 draw at Liverpool on Sunday has opened the door for reigning champions Manchester City. The Gunners, who are chasing their first title since 2004, now have a six point gap over City, but the latter have a game in hand and host Arsenal on 26 April in what could be a decisive fixture. Data company Nielsen’s Gracenote’s simulations suggest that City are now favourites with a 56% chance of lifting the trophy, while Arsenal’s chances are 44%.
The two sides have already met twice this season, with City winning 1-0 in the FA Cup in January and 3-1 in the league in February. However, Arsenal may have history on their side, as 13 sides in the top-flight have had 73 or more points after 30 games (when adapted to 3 points for a win) and only two of these have failed to go on and win the title.
Arsenal have just eight fixtures remaining, while City are still in the hunt for the FA Cup and Champions League, and could have a packed schedule between now and the end of the season. Their Premier League run-in includes Leicester (h) on 15 April, West Ham (a) on 16 April, Southampton (h) on 21 April, Sheffield United (FA Cup semi-final) on 22 April, Chelsea (h) on 29 April, Fulham (a) on 30 April, West Ham (h) on 3 May, Newcastle (a) on 7 May, Leeds (h) on 7 May, Brighton (h) on 14 May, Everton (a) on 14 May, Nottingham Forest (a) on 20 May, Chelsea (h) on 20 May, Wolves (h) on 28 May and Brentford (a) on 28 May.
City also have a superior goal difference – currently 48 to Arsenal’s 43 – which could become a factor. With so much at stake, the upcoming fixture between Arsenal and City is set to be an exciting one. The outcome of this match could be the deciding factor in who lifts the Premier League trophy come the end of the season.