NFL Week 8 Model Projections: Predicting Scores and Chances of Victory
Here are my game projections for the NFL’s Week 8. If you’re new to this series, I project the score for every game and the chance of victory for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance a game covers the spread or total. I use an “edge threshold” to determine what to bet on. You can find my best bets for Week 8 here.
If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it’s likely because of an injury or some other circumstance that I’m not confident my model can capture.
If you have any questions, please let me know in the comments, and I’ll respond as soon as possible.
NFL Week 8 Model Projections
XMOV is the model’s projected point differential for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number. All odds from BetMGM.
If any injury report news on Friday adjusts my model, we will update the table and note it in this section.
(Photo of Puka Nacua: Harry How/Getty Images)
Heading 1: Thursday Night Football – Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Green Bay Packers will face off against the Arizona Cardinals in a highly anticipated Thursday Night Football matchup. According to my NFL betting model, the projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is -3.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -6.5 for the Cardinals. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 52.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 50.5. Based on these projections, the Cardinals have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 2: Sunday Games
Heading 3: Game 1 – Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Carolina Panthers will take on the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South showdown. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is 2.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -3.5 for the Falcons. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 47.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 46.5. Based on these projections, the Falcons have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 2 – Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
The Miami Dolphins will face the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East battle. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is -10.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -14.5 for the Bills. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 48.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 50.5. Based on these projections, the Bills have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 3 – San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
The San Francisco 49ers will take on the Chicago Bears in an NFC clash. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is 4.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -3.5 for the 49ers. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 44.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 42.5. Based on these projections, the 49ers have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 4 – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Cleveland Browns in an AFC North rivalry matchup. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is -1.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -3.5 for the Browns. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 45.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 44.5. Based on these projections, the Browns have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 5 – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Detroit Lions in an NFC battle. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is 6.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -2.5 for the Eagles. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 48.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 49.5. Based on these projections, the Eagles have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 6 – Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Tennessee Titans will face the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South showdown. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is 2.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -1.5 for the Titans. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 51.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 50.5. Based on these projections, the Titans have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 7 – New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The New England Patriots will take on the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC matchup. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is -1.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -4.5 for the Chargers. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 48.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 49.5. Based on these projections, the Chargers have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 8 – Seattle Seahawks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Seattle Seahawks will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in an interconference game. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is 7.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -3.5 for the Seahawks. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 46.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 44.5. Based on these projections, the Seahawks have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 9 – Washington Football Team vs. Denver Broncos
The Washington Football Team will take on the Denver Broncos in an interconference matchup. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is -2.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -3.5 for the Broncos. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 44.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 43.5. Based on these projections, the Broncos have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Game 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the New Orleans Saints in an NFC South rivalry game. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is 6.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -4.5 for the Buccaneers. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 50.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 49.5. Based on these projections, the Buccaneers have a higher chance of victory.
Heading 3: Monday Night Football – Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the New York Giants in a Monday Night Football matchup. The projected point differential (XMOV) for this game is 9.5, with the BetMGM spread listed at -9.5 for the Chiefs. The projected combined point total (XTOTAL) is 49.5, with the BetMGM total listed at 48.5. Based on these projections, the Chiefs have a higher chance of victory.
In conclusion, these are the model projections for Week 8 of the NFL season. While these projections provide insights into the potential outcomes of each game, it’s important to remember that anything can happen in football. Stay tuned for updates and enjoy the games!