NFL Week 7 Game Projections and Betting Model Analysis
Here are my game projections for the NFL’s Week 7. If you’re new to this series, I project the score for every game and the chance of victory for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance a game covers the spread or total. I use an “edge threshold” to determine what to bet on. You can find my best bets for Week 7 here.
If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it’s likely because of an injury or some other circumstance that I’m not confident my model can capture.
If you have any questions, please let me know in the comments, and I’ll respond as soon as possible.
NFL Week 7 Model Projections
XMOV is the model’s projected point differential for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number. All odds from BetMGM.
If any injury report news on Friday adjusts my model, we will update the table and note it in this section.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Tasos Katopodis / Getty Images)
Now let’s dive into the game projections for Week 7:
1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
XMOV: Chiefs -5.5
XTOTAL: 57.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to win this game by 5.5 points according to my model. The total points expected in this matchup is 57.5. The Chiefs have been struggling this season, but they still have a strong offense led by Patrick Mahomes. The Titans, on the other hand, have been inconsistent. This game could be a high-scoring affair.
2. Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team
XMOV: Packers -7.5
XTOTAL: 48.5
The Green Bay Packers are favored to win this game by 7.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 48.5. The Packers have been one of the top teams in the league this season, thanks to the stellar play of Aaron Rodgers. The Washington Football Team has had a disappointing season so far and will face a tough challenge against the Packers.
3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
XMOV: Ravens -6.5
XTOTAL: 50.5
The Baltimore Ravens are projected to win this game by 6.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 50.5. Both teams have been performing well this season, but the Ravens have the edge in terms of experience and talent. This could be a close game, but the Ravens are favored to come out on top.
4. Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants
XMOV: Panthers -3.5
XTOTAL: 43.5
The Carolina Panthers are favored to win this game by 3.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 43.5. The Panthers have been one of the surprise teams this season, with their defense leading the way. The Giants have struggled and will face a tough challenge against the Panthers’ defense.
5. Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins
XMOV: Falcons -2.5
XTOTAL: 47.5
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to win this game by 2.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 47.5. Both teams have had their struggles this season, but the Falcons have shown more promise. This game could go either way, but the Falcons have a slight edge.
6. New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
XMOV: Patriots -10.5
XTOTAL: 43.5
The New England Patriots are favored to win this game by 10.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 43.5. The Patriots have been improving as the season progresses, while the Jets have been struggling. This game could be a one-sided affair, with the Patriots dominating.
7. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders
XMOV: Raiders -3.5
XTOTAL: 49.5
The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to win this game by 3.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 49.5. Both teams have shown flashes of potential this season, but the Raiders have been more consistent. This game could be a close one, but the Raiders are favored.
8. Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams
XMOV: Rams -14.5
XTOTAL: 51.5
The Los Angeles Rams are favored to win this game by a whopping 14.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 51.5. The Rams have one of the best offenses in the league, while the Lions have struggled on both sides of the ball. This game could be a blowout in favor of the Rams.
9. Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals
XMOV: Cardinals -17.5
XTOTAL: 47.5
The Arizona Cardinals are projected to win this game by a massive 17.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 47.5. The Cardinals have been dominant this season, led by their high-powered offense. The Texans have had a tough season and will face a tough challenge against the Cardinals.
10. Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
XMOV: Buccaneers -8.5
XTOTAL: 48.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to win this game by 8.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 48.5. The Buccaneers have one of the best offenses in the league, while the Bears have struggled to find consistency. This game could be a comfortable win for the Buccaneers.
11. Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers
XMOV: 49ers -3.5
XTOTAL: 44.5
The San Francisco 49ers are projected to win this game by 3.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 44.5. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, but the 49ers have shown more promise. This game could be a close one, but the 49ers are favored.
12. New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks
XMOV: Saints -4.5
XTOTAL: 43.5
The New Orleans Saints are favored to win this game by 4.5 points. The total points expected in this matchup is 43.5. Both teams have been dealing with injuries to key players, but the Saints have been more consistent. This game could be a low-scoring affair, with the Saints coming out on top.
In conclusion, these are the game projections for NFL Week 7 based on my betting model. These projections can help guide your betting decisions, but always remember that anything can happen in football. Good luck with your bets!