NFL Week 3 Game Projections and Model Analysis
Here are my game projections for the NFL’s Week 3. If you’re new to this series, I project the score for every game and the chance of victory for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance a game covers the spread or total. I use an “edge threshold” to determine what to bet on. You can find my best bets for Week 3 here.
If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it’s likely because of an injury or some other circumstance that I’m not confident my model can capture.
If you have any questions, please let me know in the comments, and I’ll respond as soon as possible.
NFL Week 3 Model Projections
XMOV is the model’s projected point differential for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number. All odds from BetMGM.
If any injury report news on Friday adjusts my model, we will update the table and note it in this section.
(Photo of Breece Hall: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Now let’s dive into the game projections for Week 3:
1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
XMOV: Chiefs -4
XTOTAL: 54.5
The Chiefs are projected to win by 4 points according to my model. The total points expected in this game is 54.5. It should be an exciting matchup between two high-powered offenses.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams
XMOV: Rams -2.5
XTOTAL: 50.5
The Rams are favored by 2.5 points in this game. The total points projected is 50.5. Both teams have strong defenses, so it could be a low-scoring affair.
3. Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Football Team
XMOV: Bills -7
XTOTAL: 45.5
The Bills are expected to win by 7 points in this game. The total points projected is 45.5. The Bills’ offense has been impressive so far this season, and they will look to continue their dominance.
4. San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
XMOV: 49ers -3
XTOTAL: 49.5
The 49ers are favored by 3 points in this matchup. The total points projected is 49.5. Both teams have strong quarterbacks and explosive offenses, so it should be a high-scoring game.
5. Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions
XMOV: Ravens -9
XTOTAL: 48.5
The Ravens are projected to win by 9 points in this game. The total points expected is 48.5. The Ravens’ defense will look to shut down the Lions’ offense and secure a comfortable victory.
6. Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
XMOV: Raiders -2
XTOTAL: 47.5
The Raiders are favored by 2 points in this matchup. The total points projected is 47.5. Both teams have shown promise early in the season, so it could be a closely contested game.
7. Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
XMOV: Broncos -10
XTOTAL: 43.5
The Broncos are expected to win by a commanding 10 points in this game. The total points projected is 43.5. The Jets have struggled offensively, and the Broncos’ defense will look to take advantage.
8. Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans
XMOV: Panthers -6
XTOTAL: 44.5
The Panthers are favored by 6 points in this matchup. The total points projected is 44.5. The Panthers’ defense has been impressive so far this season, and they will look to continue their dominance against the Texans.
9. Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
XMOV: Cardinals -7
XTOTAL: 51.5
The Cardinals are projected to win by 7 points in this game. The total points expected is 51.5. The Cardinals’ high-powered offense will look to exploit the Jaguars’ defense and secure a comfortable victory.
10. Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
XMOV: Seahawks -3
XTOTAL: 52.5
The Seahawks are favored by 3 points in this matchup. The total points projected is 52.5. Both teams have strong offenses, so it should be a high-scoring game.
11. Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears
XMOV: Browns -6
XTOTAL: 45.5
The Browns are expected to win by 6 points in this game. The total points projected is 45.5. The Browns’ dominant rushing attack will look to control the game and secure a victory.
12. New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints
XMOV: Patriots -2
XTOTAL: 43.5
The Patriots are favored by 2 points in this matchup. The total points projected is 43.5. Both teams have strong defenses, so it could be a low-scoring affair.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
XMOV: Steelers -4
XTOTAL: 46.5
The Steelers are projected to win by 4 points in this game. The total points expected is 46.5. The Steelers’ defense will look to shut down the Bengals’ offense and secure a victory.
14. Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
XMOV: Titans -3
XTOTAL: 48.5
The Titans are favored by 3 points in this matchup. The total points projected is 48.5. Both teams have strong offenses, so it should be a high-scoring game.
15. Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
XMOV: Giants -1
XTOTAL: 47.5
The Giants are expected to win by 1 point in this game. The total points projected is 47.5. Both teams have struggled early in the season, so it could be a closely contested game.
16. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
XMOV: Cowboys -4
XTOTAL: 50.5
The Cowboys are favored by 4 points in this matchup. The total points projected is 50.5. Both teams have explosive offenses, so it should be a high-scoring game.
These are the model projections for Week 3 of the NFL season. Keep in mind that these projections are based on statistical analysis and may not always accurately predict the outcome of each game. However, they can provide valuable insights for bettors and fans alike. Enjoy the games!