Boost Your NFL Betting Strategy in November
November brings new opportunities for success in NFL betting. While my NFL Projection model has been steady throughout the season, I believe we can maximize our profits in the final two months. Although it’s been an underwhelming season for overs, we managed to secure a 2-1 record last week, with the Steelers and Chiefs delivering wins for us. Let’s dive into this week’s best bets and make some money!
Last Week’s Results and Season Record
Last week, we went 2-1, earning a profit of 0.90 units. So far this season, our record stands at 24-24, with a slight loss of 0.65 units and a -1.3% return on investment (ROI).
This week, we have an expanded card, and I may add more plays as injury reports become available. Keep an eye on the article and my Twitter (@amock419) for updates. Additionally, teasers make a comeback this week! Good luck to all of us.
NFL Week 10 Best Bets
Remember to compare odds from different sportsbooks to get the best possible number. Over time, even small differences can significantly impact your winnings.
The “worst line to bet” is the final number at which I would still place a bet. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs, unless otherwise specified. The odds mentioned are from BetMGM and were accurate at the time of making the picks. Click here for live odds.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots under 43 (-110)
I lack confidence in the Patriots’ offense, especially with Mac Jones at quarterback. Jones ranks 27th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in terms of EPA/Dropback. Even Gardner Minshew, who ranks slightly higher, struggles with success rate on dropbacks. I expect a subpar offensive performance from the Patriots.
Worst price to bet: Under 43 (-110)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens over 37.5 (-110)
This pick may make you a bit uneasy, but the low number doesn’t reflect the recent performance of the Ravens’ offense. Despite facing a strong Browns defense, I believe the Ravens will score enough points to push the total over 37.5.
Worst line to bet: Over 37.5 (-110)
Houston Texans +7 (-115) at Cincinnati Bengals
This seems like an opportune moment to fade the Bengals, who may be overrated by the market. While Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense have been impressive, laying a full touchdown with a banged-up JaMarr Chase is not enticing. The Texans have value as underdogs here.
Worst price to bet: Texans +7 (-115)
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings under 41 (-110)
Shop around for the best odds, as you may find some 41.5s. After witnessing Josh Dobbs’ heroics last week, I’m skeptical that the Vikings’ offense can replicate that success. Additionally, the Saints’ offense has been lackluster this season. Expect a low-scoring game.
Worst line to bet: Under 41 (-115)
Teaser Watch
I recommend playing two-team, six-point teasers at -120 odds or lower.
Last week: 0-0, +0.00 units
Season record: 6-2, +3.60 units, +37.5% ROI
Bills -1.5/Vikings +8.5
(Photo of Will Anderson Jr.: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)