NFL Week 1 is finally here, and fans can’t wait for the real football to begin. The season kicks off with the Ravens taking on the Chiefs in the NFL Kickoff Game on Thursday. But along with the excitement of the games, comes the opportunity to bet using the NFL Projection Model.
Before diving into this season’s projections, let’s take a look at how the model performed in previous years. Last year, the record stood at 48-47-1, with a slight loss of -1.25 units and a -1.2% ROI. However, the overall record has been more promising, with a 110-101-2 record, a gain of +0.79 units, and a 0.3% ROI.
As for this week’s card, it appears to be a bit small to start. The model is holding off on at least one play, waiting to see how the market moves. But there are a few others that catch its eye. In the early part of the season, there will likely be more spread bets than total bets, as the scoring environment remains uncertain. The NFL has introduced new kickoff rules this year, which may result in a slight increase in scoring. Only time will tell how this will affect the games.
For the best prices, it’s always wise to shop around before placing bets. Following the model’s updates on social media, such as X/Twitter (@amock419), is also recommended. If there are any questions, fans can reach out on social media or leave comments.
Now, let’s dive into the best bets for NFL Week 1 according to the NFL Projection Model:
1. Buffalo Bills -6 (-110) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The model favors the Bills by more than a touchdown in their matchup against the Cardinals. Despite the Cardinals’ potential improvements, the model remains skeptical. With Josh Allen leading the Bills’ offense and the Cardinals’ defense ranking in the bottom five according to the model, it’s unlikely the Cardinals can stay within this number.
Worst line to bet: Bills -6.5 (-110)
2. Seattle Seahawks -6 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos
The model predicts a tough game for rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Broncos. Playing in a hostile environment against a formidable Seahawks defense, it’s unlikely that the Broncos will be able to cover the spread. On the other hand, the Seahawks’ offense has the potential to have a great game against a weak Broncos defense. If there’s a market with the largest margin of victory, the Seahawks could provide the best value.
Worst line to bet: Seahawks -6 (-115)
Teaser of the Week:
Colts +8.5/Cowboys +8.5 (-120)
With a record of 8-5 last season and a 15.4% ROI, the teaser of the week features the Colts and the Cowboys. By teasing the spread to +8.5 for both teams, bettors can increase their chances of winning.
As the NFL season kicks off, fans can look forward to thrilling games and the opportunity to bet using the NFL Projection Model. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the model’s track record provides insight and guidance for placing bets. So sit back, enjoy the games, and may the odds be ever in your favor.