New York Giants: Expectations, Draft Picks, and Season Predictions
Which New York Giants season was the aberration? Was it the surprising playoff appearance in 2022? Or was it the 6-11 fiasco in 2023? That answer will be revealed this season.
Great expectations?
Giants general manager Joe Schoen never likes to share expectations publicly before the season, so it wasn’t a surprise when he side-stepped questions on the topic during his annual post-cut day news conference last week. However, with co-owner John Mara stating in early August that he wants to see “significant improvement” this season, Schoen was asked how he’ll measure the progress his boss desires.
“The goal is to win games,” Schoen said. “Always.”
Winning games would obviously be the most direct route to demonstrating improvement. If the Giants win nine games and are back in the playoff picture, Mara will be able to meet his standard of “feeling like we’re moving in the right direction” when he walks off the field after the final game of the season. But such improvement in the win column could be a tall task for a team with a win total projected at 6.5 games. Still, there are ways to show progress.
For Schoen, he needs his draft picks to deliver. The best players on the roster, left tackle Andrew Thomas and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, are holdovers from the previous regime. The other premier players, outside linebacker Brian Burns and inside linebacker Bobby Okereke, were expensive veteran acquisitions. None of the picks from Schoen’s first two draft classes are established yet as upper-level players, although 2022 first-round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux showed promise with 11.5 sacks last season. The biggest hope for a star draft pick is this year’s first-round selection, Malik Nabers. Second-round rookie Tyler Nubin is in line to start at safety, while third-round rookie Dru Phillips will be the starting nickel cornerback. Picks like that need to develop into core players.
Misses in previous drafts forced Schoen to pivot to veterans this offseason. Schoen went 0-for-4 on offensive line additions in 2022, with first-round pick Evan Neal, third-round pick Josh Ezeudu, fifth-round pick Marcus McKethan, and free-agent signing Mark Glowinski all failing to become reliable starters. Schoen held off on spending on a veteran cornerback all offseason, expressing confidence in the young options on the roster. But after 2022 third-round pick Cor’Dale Flott and fourth-year pro Nick McCloud struggled throughout camp, Schoen re-signed cornerback Adoree’ Jackson to a one-year, $1.8 million contract last Friday.
If Schoen doesn’t start getting more production from his draft picks, it will be hard to meet Mara’s desire for significant improvement.
Facing a flurry of blitzes
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones enjoyed the best game of his career against the Vikings in the Wild Card round of the 2022 playoffs. Jones carved up a soft Vikings defense for 301 yards passing and 78 yards rushing in a 31-24 win. Daboll cautioned that the Giants will be facing a much different defense on Sunday considering Vikings defensive coordinator Ed Donatell was fired after that playoff loss. He was replaced by Brian Flores, who is one of the most aggressive defensive coordinators in the league.
Flores will throw a dizzying array of exotic blitzes at Jones on Sunday. Jones will be protected by an overhauled line that didn’t take a single practice rep together until last week due to various injuries and Van Roten’s signing a week into camp. The experience on the line will help, but it will be challenging for the group to take its first game reps together against Flores’ flurry of blitzes.
Depth concerns
The Giants upgraded their starting offensive line with the infusion of veterans, but their tackle depth remains a concern. The top backup tackle appears to be Ezeudu, as he was last season. It’s hard to believe the Giants are comfortable with that arrangement since he played so poorly when he stepped in at left tackle after Thomas suffered a hamstring injury in last season’s opener.
Neal, who had been the starting right tackle when healthy the past two seasons, is the other backup tackle. Neal returned to practice midway through the preseason after undergoing ankle surgery in January. He has only worked at right tackle, so he’s likely only a backup option at that spot and not a true swing tackle.
In a tight corner
The Giants’ inexperienced secondary won’t get to ease into the season thanks to a matchup with the best wide receiver in the NFL, Justin Jefferson. New Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen didn’t typically have his corners travel with receivers during his three seasons calling the shots for the Titans. So it would be surprising if the Giants task No. 1 corner Deonte Banks with shadowing Jefferson. Instead, the corners will likely play on a designated side, with a variety of coverages being used to try to slow Jefferson.
That’s no easy feat, as Jefferson had 68 catches for 1,074 yards and five touchdowns despite missing seven games last season with a hamstring injury. Jefferson averaged 7.5 catches and 119 yards in the final four games of the season with Nick Mullens at quarterback. Jefferson isn’t a one-man show, as No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison tallied 70 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. The Giants get a break with Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson missing the game as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered late last season, but the secondary still will be put to the test.
Another big game for Lawrence?
The Giants will lean on their pass rush all season to compensate for the deficiencies in their secondary. The Vikings’ tackle duo of Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill should be able to match up better with Giants edge rushers Thibodeaux and Brian Burns than most teams. The weakness of the Vikings’ line is the interior. Lawrence wrecked the game with seven pressures in the playoff win over the Vikings in 2022. Minnesota’s center, Garrett Bradbury, and right guard, Ed Ingram, remain from that game, while Blake Brandel, who has made five starts in four seasons, has taken over at left guard.
The Vikings haven’t committed to running the ball in coach Kevin O’Connell’s first two seasons, but free agent signing Aaron Jones is a major upgrade at running back. With so much attention paid to Jefferson and questions behind Lawrence on the defensive line, it would make sense for the Vikings to feed Jones.
‘Technician’ at work
The Giants held off on signing a veteran corner until the recent reunion with Jackson. Stephon Gilmore was available deep into the summer before signing a one-year, $7 million contract that includes another $3 million in incentives with the Vikings on Aug. 19. The Giants obviously didn’t have interest in spending that much on the 33-year-old former NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The 28-year-old Jackson was much more affordable, signing a one-year, $1.8 million deal that includes incentives based on interceptions and playing time that aren’t yet known.
If Gilmore has lost a step, he remains effective due to his savvy. “He’s such a technician with what he does,” Giants wide receiver Jalin Hyatt said after matching up with Gilmore twice last season with the Cowboys. “Every time I was running at him, he would change his look up. It was kind of getting me confused on what I was doing.”
New beginnings
The opener has set the tone in both of Daboll’s seasons. In his debut, a gutsy decision to attempt a two-point conversion after a late touchdown led to a spirited 21-20 win over the Titans. The Giants rode that momentum to a stunning 6-1 start that paved the way to the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2016. The encore wasn’t nearly as inspiring. The Giants got destroyed 40-0 by the Cowboys in last season’s opener. That started a spiral that bottomed out at 2-8.
Slow starters
The Giants’ slow starts haven’t been limited to seasons. They have also been slow starters in games under Daboll. The Giants have scored an NFL low 64 first-quarter points in the past two seasons. The Panthers are the next lowest with 84 points. The Giants’ -105 scoring margin in the first quarters of the past two seasons is also the worst in the league, 14 points more than the Commanders’ differential. The Giants scored just three points in the first quarters of Jones’ six starts last season. That lack of early production needs to be remedied if the Giants are going to turn things around.
Game prediction:
Vikings 23, Giants 19. Forcing Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold into a few turnovers could change the complexion of this game, but I’m skeptical the Giants’ defense will hit the ground running. And it’s hard to envision them containing Jefferson. Jones facing an attacking defense doesn’t feel like a recipe for success with so many new pieces on offense.
Giants season record prediction:
6-11. I was leaning toward 7-10 for most of the offseason, but watching the secondary get torched for big plays daily in training camp and joint practices raised my concerns about the defense and dropped me to 6-11. The pass rush should be the strength of the team, but I don’t think it’s going to be good enough to hide the weaknesses in the secondary. Offensively, there are obvious questions about the quarterback, and an improved line doesn’t necessarily equal a good line. Add in a scary lack of depth all over the roster, and I don’t see this team making strides. Picking around No. 6 again, the Giants will move on from Jones and trade up for their quarterback of the future next offseason.