The NASCAR playoffs are heating up as the field narrows down to the final eight drivers competing for four spots in the championship race. The first race of this round is set to take place at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the South Point 400. With only four races left, current points leader William Byron is the betting favorite for the championship. However, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex Jr. are not far behind in the odds.
Heading into the race in Las Vegas, Larson is actually the favorite according to BetMGM. It’s worth noting that all of the top five spots in the odds are held by playoff drivers. This indicates that the competition will be fierce among these contenders.
To gain more insight into what to expect at the South Point 400, The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi answered questions about the race and each made their predictions for a winner.
One of the questions posed was whether William Byron, who has made it to this stage last year and has consistently made the playoffs for the past four years, is a logical favorite to win the championship. Gluck believes that while Byron is a strong contender, he is sticking with his pre-playoffs pick of Denny Hamlin. Gluck praises Byron’s breakout season with six wins and his ability to race with composure and maturity. However, he gives Hamlin the edge due to his experience in successfully navigating the pressure of this round. On the other hand, Bianchi feels that Byron and Hamlin are consensus co-favorites, and both have a strong case to make. He gives Hamlin a slight edge due to his experience in advancing past this round.
Kyle Larson, who finished second in Las Vegas earlier this year, is the favorite to win this weekend’s race. Gluck finds it interesting that Larson is favored over Byron and Hamlin, considering Byron’s dominant performance in the spring Vegas race. Gluck believes that Toyota cars, such as those driven by Hamlin, Truex Jr., and Tyler Reddick, have been the ones to watch on 1.5-mile tracks lately. However, he expects Larson to be a top-three contender at the very least. Bianchi agrees that Larson’s speed on intermediate tracks cannot be overlooked. He points out Larson’s strong performances on 1.5-mile tracks throughout the season, especially in the playoffs. Bianchi believes that Larson will be a significant factor in the outcome of the race, just like Byron and Hamlin.
Last week at the Roval, four of the top five finishers were not in the playoff field. Gluck explains that this was due to the stage breaks on road courses, where playoff drivers had to prioritize securing stage points rather than going for the win. However, Gluck expects a different scenario in Vegas, where he believes that potentially all of the top five drivers will be playoff contenders. He predicts a strength-on-strength battle among the best drivers, with few underdogs or upset picks in the mix. Bianchi agrees, stating that the Roval is a unique race that cannot be compared to Las Vegas. He expects the usual suspects to be up front and in contention on Sunday.
When asked which four drivers they think will advance from this round, Gluck and Bianchi have similar predictions. Gluck’s current final four are Hamlin, Byron, Larson, and Reddick, with Reddick replacing Truex from his pre-playoff picks. While Truex could rebound in the next couple of races, his lack of momentum and failure to finish in the top 15 throughout the playoffs so far is concerning. Bianchi’s final four are also Hamlin, Byron, Larson, and Reddick. He believes that these drivers have clearly separated themselves from the pack, with Reddick’s upside and speed being hard to ignore.
As for their picks to win the race, Gluck and Bianchi have different choices. Gluck selects Hamlin, citing his belief that this could finally be his year. He praises Hamlin’s speed and his team’s ability to put him in a good position to secure a championship spot. On the other hand, Bianchi expects a battle between Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. Considering the long green flag runs that often result in errors on pit road in Las Vegas races, Bianchi predicts that Byron will come out on top and secure his series-best seventh win of the season, earning him a spot in the championship finale.
The South Point 400 is shaping up to be an intense race as the playoff drivers fight for their chance to advance. With the odds favoring Larson, Byron, and Hamlin, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top and secures their spot in the championship race.