Lucas Giolito: A Promising Free-Agent Starter with Uncertain Prospects

As the market for mid-tier free-agent starters continues to shrink with the signings of Kenta Maeda, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson, all eyes are on right-hander Lucas Giolito.

A Unique Case

Giolito, who will turn 30 on July 14, stands out as the youngest domestic starter available after lefty Julio Urías was placed on administrative leave due to legal issues. In addition to his age, Giolito offers the durability that teams covet, ranking eighth in the league for innings pitched over the past six seasons.

A Season of Struggles

However, Giolito’s recent performance raises concerns. After being traded to the Angels and then the Guardians last season, his numbers took a nosedive. He ended the season with a disappointing 6.96 ERA in 63 1/3 innings, compared to a solid 3.79 ERA in 121 innings with the White Sox. His strikeout rate ranked 16th in the league, while his walk rate was among the worst. Notably, he also allowed the most home runs in the American League, with a total of 41.

The Question of Value

Given his mixed performance, it remains uncertain what kind of contract Giolito can expect. Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts a two-year deal worth $24 million, while MLB Trade Rumors suggests a slightly more lucrative two-year deal worth $44 million. Alternatively, a three-year contract with multiple opt-outs or a longer deal with a lower average annual value (AAV) and a single opt-out, similar to the contract signed by Rodríguez with the Tigers, could also be possibilities.

As the offseason progresses, teams will weigh Giolito’s potential against his recent struggles, ultimately determining his market value and the length of his next contract.