Is the Champions League Losing its Excitement with a Lack of Magic Moments?
The Champions League, once known for its unpredictable and magical moments, seems to be losing its excitement in recent years. The dominance of the top clubs, combined with the wealth disparity between teams, has made it increasingly difficult for underdogs to pull off upsets.
Predictability in the Champions League
If one were to use artificial intelligence (AI) to predict the teams that would reach the latter stages of the 2023-24 Champions League, it would likely have picked those currently in this season’s quarter-finals. The majority of the last eight teams are from the top nine sides based on UEFA coefficients, with Arsenal being the only outlier. In fact, from the group stage, 12 out of the top 15 teams based on coefficients reached the knockout stages. The gap between the mega-rich clubs and the rest has grown over the past five years, resulting in fewer surprises.
The Impact of Wealth
The increased wealth of the top European clubs has allowed them to attract and sign the best talents from smaller teams. Players like Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, and Frenkie de Jong, who made a name for themselves in previous editions of the Champions League, were quickly snapped up by bigger clubs. Spanish football expert Guillem Balague believes that this concentration of talent is contributing to the lack of surprises in the competition. He highlights that only a handful of clubs, mainly in England, PSG, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich, have access to these top talents.
The Predictable Format
The format of the Champions League has also come under scrutiny. The group stage, present since the competition’s inception in 1992, has been criticized for giving big teams multiple chances to recover from slip-ups and avoid upsets. It has also led to dead rubbers and artificially lengthened the competition. Italian football expert Mina Rzouki argues that the predictability of the Champions League stems from the lack of big games and fairytale stories. The current concentration of wealth in a few clubs makes it difficult for smaller teams to go far.
Uefa’s Attempt to Restore Excitement
Recognizing the need for change, UEFA has announced a new format for the Champions League starting in the 2024-25 season. The competition will feature 36 teams in a single league, creating a more competitive first phase and more big clashes. The format aims to increase diversity among participating teams and energize the appeal of the competition. However, experts like Balague and Rzouki remain skeptical about whether this format change will truly restore the magic of the Champions League.
Concerns and Criticisms
Balague expresses concern that even with the new format, the quarters will still feature a similar field of teams, leading to a lack of surprises. Rzouki raises concerns about the increase in the number of group-stage games from six to eight, which may lead to issues around player fitness. She questions whether the diluted competition, with so many matches that often don’t feature the biggest stars, can still provide those moments of unpredictability and magic that fans crave.
The Future of the Champions League
While the new format holds promise for a more competitive and diverse Champions League, doubts remain about whether it can truly restore the competition’s magic. The dominance of the wealthiest clubs and the concentration of talent in a few teams present challenges that need to be addressed. Only time will tell if the changes implemented by UEFA can create a more thrilling and unpredictable Champions League. Until then, fans may have to rely on AI predictions or hope for an upset to experience those magical moments once again.