The integration of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system into football has undeniably transformed how the game is played and officiated. However, its influence extends far beyond the pitch, creating new challenges and opportunities for bettors. Understanding how VAR can shape betting strategies, its impact on various markets, and how to adapt to its unpredictability is crucial for anyone looking to place informed wagers.
How is VAR shaping the betting landscape?
Since VAR made its debut in the Premier League in 2019, it has brought a significant increase in officiating accuracy. Recent statistics indicate that key decision errors by referees have decreased from 80 to just 64, while correct interventions have risen impressively to 66 out of 70. This improvement suggests that VAR has the potential to enhance fairness in the game.
Despite these benefits, VAR has not been without its criticisms. Many argue that it disrupts the natural flow of the game. Decisions can take time to confirm, often leading to extended pauses in play that frustrate players and spectators alike. Additionally, the subjective nature of some decisions means that controversies can still arise, leaving fans and bettors feeling uncertain about outcomes.
One of the most notable aspects of VAR’s impact is on live betting. With the potential for goals to be disallowed or awarded after lengthy reviews, bettors are left grappling with rapidly changing odds. A case in point is the 2023 incident involving Luis Díaz’s disallowed goal for Liverpool against Tottenham. A communication breakdown led to a mistaken belief that a goal had been awarded, resulting in significant financial implications for bettors who had wagered on Liverpool’s success.
Which markets are likely to be impacted the most?
When it comes to betting, certain markets are particularly susceptible to the whims of VAR decisions. These include:
Match result and correct score: Bets placed on match outcomes or specific scorelines are directly affected by VAR interventions. For instance, in the 2020 match between Aston Villa and Sheffield United, a clear goal for Sheffield went unrecognized due to a goal-line technology failure, resulting in a 0-0 draw instead of a likely 1-0 win.
Total goals (over-under): Disallowed goals can heavily influence over-under bets. A notable instance occurred during a 2023 match between West Ham and Chelsea, where a late winner for West Ham was disallowed. This decision impacted the bets on total goals, leaving those who backed over 2.5 goals disappointed while those who wagered on under 2.5 benefited.
First and anytime goalscorer: The uncertainty caused by VAR also extends to goalscorer markets. In the 2024 Carabao Cup final, Raheem Sterling thought he had scored Chelsea’s opening goal, only for VAR to rule it out. Bettors who had placed money on Sterling lost out, while those who had bet on Virgil van Dijk for a surprise win were rewarded.
Penalties: VAR plays a critical role in awarding or overturning penalties. A memorable incident took place in the 2020 match between Brighton and Manchester United, where VAR awarded a penalty after the final whistle. This decision drastically altered the betting landscape, rewarding those who backed United to win.
Red cards: The implications of VAR also extend to the red card market, with VAR capable of upgrading yellow cards or reversing dismissals. Such decisions can shift odds dramatically, as seen in the 2024 clash between Sheffield and Brighton, where a yellow card was upgraded to a red, benefiting bettors who had wagered on total cards.
What if VAR is ‘wrong’ or produces controversial calls?
While VAR aims to eliminate human error, it has also led to controversy, particularly in high-stakes matches affecting title races, European qualifications, and relegation battles. A significant example occurred during the Arsenal vs. Brentford match in 2023 when a goal was allowed despite an offside that VAR failed to recognize. This costly error not only impacted the match outcome but also had repercussions for Arsenal’s title ambitions.
The emotional fallout from such decisions can influence betting behaviour. Bettors might chase losses or make impulsive wagers after experiencing a controversial call that affects their bets. Historical instances, such as a 2013 match between Liverpool and Manchester City, highlight how decisions can linger in the memories of fans and influence future betting behaviour.
How can bettors navigate the complexity of VAR?
To successfully bet in a VAR-influenced landscape, bettors must adapt their strategies:
Team analysis: Understanding how teams perform in relation to VAR is essential. Teams that play a high defensive line, such as Arsenal and Chelsea, are more prone to offside calls, which can nullify goals. Analyzing past seasons’ VAR records can provide insights into teams’ vulnerabilities.
Market selection: Focusing on markets less likely to be influenced by VAR, such as total corners or bookings, can minimize risk. These events tend to be less contentious and therefore provide more stability in betting outcomes.
Timing of bets: Timing is everything in the age of VAR. Placing bets during stoppages or following a VAR review can reduce exposure to sudden changes in odds. With interventions averaging around 55-64 seconds, being strategic about when to place bets can help bettors avoid unnecessary volatility.
Navigating the complexities of VAR requires both knowledge and adaptability. As the game evolves, so too must the strategies of bettors. By understanding how VAR influences outcomes, choosing less affected markets, and being strategic with timing, bettors can better position themselves for success in this unpredictable betting environment.