The odds on England winning Euro 2024 have been slashed by bookmakers, not because of a surge of optimism or betting activity, but because of the way the tournament has unfolded. England’s odds, along with Italy’s, Austria’s, and Switzerland’s, were cut, while the odds on France, Spain, Germany, and Portugal drifted accordingly. The knockout bracket looked unbalanced even before the tournament began, and it has been further unbalanced by France’s failure to win their group.
The bottom quarter of the bracket, on paper, appears reasonably strong with Switzerland facing Italy and England facing a third-placed team (possibly the Netherlands). However, these teams have only won a total of three games between them in the group stage. This means that a team that has only won once in the group stage will reach the semi-finals in the bottom quarter of the draw, where they could potentially face Austria, Belgium, or the Netherlands.
Some may argue that England got lucky with how the knockout stage is shaping up, but manager Gareth Southgate remains focused on taking it one step at a time. While England did end up in the opposite side of the bracket to Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal, Southgate acknowledges that there are still very good teams on their side of the draw.
This pattern of an unbalanced knockout bracket is not new. In the 2018 World Cup, five of the top-ranked teams ended up on one side of the draw while the other half consisted of teams with mixed performances in the group stage. Belgium paid a heavy price for winning their group as they fell to France in the semi-final. Similarly, in Euro 2016, Italy excelled in the group stage but ended up on the tougher side of the draw and lost to Germany in the quarter-final.
Unlike competitions like the FA Cup or NFL and NBA playoffs, international football competitions have a pre-determined structure from the moment the draw is made. This is done to ensure planning, travel, and enough rest between matches. However, there are still inconsistencies, as some teams may have longer breaks between matches than others.
While knockout football is unpredictable, it can be predicted with some confidence that a team that has performed poorly in the group stage could reach the semi-final or even the final. England, Switzerland, Italy, and other teams have had a soft landing after a difficult group stage, which could potentially serve as a springboard for their success in the tournament.