After four premier League matches, coventry sit without a point or a goal, tottenham have failed to score in the league and Aston Villa have collected just one point. Those early-season headlines are worrying for supporters, but a closer look at history, expected-goals data and fixture context shows there are realistic pathways out of trouble for all three clubs.
- Early-season form is a small sample: four matches do not define a 38-game campaign.
- Historical precedents show both recoveries and relegations after poor starts; the outcomes are mixed.
- xG and chance-creation metrics point to fixable issues for Tottenham and Aston Villa.
- Cup results and squad integration provide reasons for optimism for Villa; coventry’s fixture difficulty tempers immediate judgement.
- Practical markers to watch: first goals/points, improved xG outputs and cohesion among new signings.
What the raw starts look like
The snapshot is stark: Coventry are the only top-flight side without a point after four games and have yet to score; Tottenham have drawn twice but remain goalless across four league fixtures; Aston Villa have one point and one goal after a run of difficult matches. Those facts, reported across multiple outlets, are the starting point for any assessment.
History offers mitigating examples
Early-season futility does not always determine final position. There are several precedents of sides that began badly but recovered to safety or better. The guardian compilation of historical Premier League starts notes Crystal Palace in 2017-18 failed to score or earn a point in their first five matches under Frank de Boer, a run that extended to seven matches without a goal after Roy Hodgson took over; Palace ultimately finished 11th.
The evidence packet also cites Everton as the most recent side before Coventry to lose their first four league games and still avoid relegation (2024-25), and records that eight teams out of eighteen that lost their first four stayed up historically. Conversely, other teams that began similarly — Portsmouth in 2009-10 and Norwich in 2021-22, for example — did drop out of the division. The lesson is mixed but not uniformly fatal.
Tottenham’s attack looks inefficient, not necessarily broken
Opta-based analysis highlights that Tottenham have created limited expected goals (xG) so far: Spurs rank near the bottom for total xG across their opening four matches and are bottom for xG per shot. TheAnalyst notes Tottenham’s xG across four games (3.45) is the second-lowest in the league and that Spurs have created higher xG than opponents in only one game. Those metrics point to an attacking side producing too few quality chances rather than one irreparably short of quality.
Historical context is relevant: other teams have endured early goal droughts and recovered. The Guardian lists Sheffield Wednesday (1994-95), Newcastle (2005-06), Swansea (2011-12) and Aston Villa (last season) among teams that failed to score in their first four league games — none were relegated that season, and the lowest finish among them was 13th. Tottenham’s situation, while uncomfortable, fits into a pattern where a prolonged early drought need not doom a campaign.
Aston Villa: squad turnover and midweek wins give cause for calm
Aston Villa’s slow start coincides with substantial summer squad change. TheAnalyst points out Villa’s rebuild after heavy transfer turnover and shows their early-season xG (3.39 across four league matches) is the lowest in the division. That helps explain their sluggishness: integration of new players and tactical adjustment under Unai Emery can take time.
Crucially, Villa’s results away from league form are mixed in a helpful way. Evidence shows Villa began their European campaign with a 3-2 win in the Champions League and progressed in the EFL Cup with a 3-1 victory over Coventry, where Tammy Abraham scored twice. Those non-league positive results suggest the squad has attacking potential that has yet to translate into consistent league returns.
Coventry: context of fixtures and the small sample problem
Coventry’s start is the most alarming at face value — zero points and zero goals after four games — but context softens the picture. Two of Coventry’s opening fixtures were away to the strongest sides in the division, Arsenal and Manchester City, and the club produced a respectable performance against City. Their defeats also include a narrow 1-0 reverse to fellow promoted side Hull and a heavy 5-0 loss to Brighton, a game influenced by a second-half red card to Taiwo Awoniyi.
Promotion sides often face steep early tests; the Guardian’s review shows Coventry are the eighth promoted club to lose their first four league matches, and only one of those promoted teams avoided relegation (Southampton in 2012-13). Still, across all Premier League history, eight of eighteen teams who lost their first four games have survived. In short, Coventry’s fixture list and small sample size mean early conclusions would be premature.
Tactical and short-term practical implications
Across these three cases a few practical points arise that clubs and supporters should note:
- Expected-goals measures matter. For Spurs and Villa, low xG suggests different remedies: Spurs need to create higher-quality chances or finish the chances they are creating, while Villa’s problem appears linked to integration after squad churn.
- Cup competitions and midweek fixtures can reset momentum. Villa’s cup wins and Coventry’s competitive display at Manchester City are examples where confidence-building performances already exist outside league results.
- Early-season red cards, fixture difficulty and small samples can distort perception. Coventry’s heavy defeat to Brighton was compounded by a dismissal; single-game incidents should not be overweighted when projecting a season of 38 matches.
Realistic recovery timelines
Past examples imply different timelines. Palace’s turnaround in 2017-18 unfolded over a long run of matches after a managerial switch; Everton in 2024-25 avoided relegation despite losing their first four; Aston Villa themselves did not score in the opening four games last season yet finished fourth and claimed the Europa League. For Tottenham and Villa, remedying xG and attacking inefficiency could yield visible improvement within a few matchweeks if chance creation increases. For Coventry, points are harder to come by given fixture difficulty, but incremental progress — a first goal followed by a first point — often precedes consistent results.
Scenarios to watch over the coming weeks
- Tottenham: a match that yields a high xG output or improved shot quality will be an early indicator that De Zerbi’s side are beginning to solve their attacking issues.
- Aston Villa: continued cup success or a first league win following better cohesion among new arrivals would underline that last season’s high finish was not a fluke but the result of a squad capable of competing once settled.
- Coventry: a goal and then a point would be meaningful psychological markers; the priority for promoted sides often is to stop heavy defeats from compounding pressure and to secure a first result soon after difficult fixtures.
Bottom line for supporters and clubs
Four games is a small sample across a 38-match season. The historical record contains both cautionary tales and notable recoveries. Current metrics show Tottenham and Aston Villa are underperforming their expected outputs — a fixable problem if chance creation and player integration improve — while Coventry’s early struggle is amplified by a tough fixture list and isolated incidents such as a red card. The evidence suggests alarm is understandable but not compulsory: measured adjustments, attention to chance creation and the psychological boost of cup results or a first league goal can change trajectories quickly.
“Four games down, 34 to go” — the simplest useful frame for supporters: time remains, and history shows early form is not destiny.