Cody Bellinger to the Cubs: New Bat-Missing Metrics and More on Rates & Barrels

Cody Bellinger to the Cubs: New Bat-Missing Metrics and More on Rates & Barrels

Cody Bellinger’s performance in the 2023 season has left many fans and analysts divided. While his numbers were impressive, drawing skepticism about his ability to sustain his success has been a common sentiment. In the Statcast era, few players have been as productive as Bellinger was last year, with a batting average of .307, 26 home runs, and 20 stolen bases. However, what caught the attention of many was that his batting average was significantly higher than his career mark of .258.

Delving deeper into the metrics, it becomes evident that Bellinger’s barrel rate and hard-hit rate were at career lows. His barrel rate was only at the 27th percentile, and his hard-hit rate was at the 10th percentile. These suboptimal Statcast metrics, along with his prolonged stay in free agency, caused his average draft position (ADP) to slip just outside the top 50 overall rankings.

However, since re-signing with the Cubs, Bellinger has moved up in drafts and is now sitting at pick No. 50. Despite being ranked as the 11th-best hitter in 2023 based on the FanGraphs auction calculator, skeptics still outnumber the believers. One positive aspect of Bellinger’s performance is his ability to handle left-handed pitching better than ever before. Additionally, he excelled in two-strike situations, which could be attributed to his approach at the plate.

Analyzing Bellinger’s two-strike splits, there is variance within his fresh batting average projection. However, if one believes this is a skill, then his floor in that category is much higher. Although relying on one season’s worth of two-strike splits may be questionable, it could still hold value similar to lefty vs. lefty splits in a particular year.

When it comes to draft strategy, it is essential to work backward and determine what can be found in abundance later in the draft. This allows for smarter decision-making in the early rounds and taking full advantage of the player pool’s shape and depth. In terms of stolen bases, only four hitters are projected to steal 20-plus bases and have at least 500 plate appearances. Jarren Duran, TJ Friedl, Trevor Story, and Tommy Edman are the players to watch for in this category. However, Starling Marte, who has consistently achieved this feat in previous seasons, is an intriguing option to consider.

Moving on to other teams, the Yankees team preview highlighted Will Warren as a potential valuable member of the rotation if injuries arise. Warren showcased impressive numbers in Triple-A last season, ranking fourth in Stuff+ among Triple-A pitchers. Another player to keep an eye on is Bobby Witt Jr., who narrowly missed a 30-50 season in 2023. With improved strikeout rates and steady underlying power metrics, Witt has the potential to reach even greater heights.

The White Sox also present an exciting prospect in Nick Nastrini. With a good stuff but shaky command profile, Nastrini’s journey as a starter could be a thrilling one if he can harness his skills. In the Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles team preview, Yusei Kikuchi stood out with his improved control, making him a bargain pick. Zack Littell also deserves attention for his potential contribution to the Rays’ rotation. Littell demonstrated excellent control last season and posted impressive numbers with Tampa Bay.

Lastly, Ryan Mountcastle was highlighted as a source of cheap power in the Orioles’ lineup. While he is projected for a .260+ average and 20+ home runs, there is a slight risk due to increased competition for playing time. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Taylor Ward, Eloy Jiménez, and Andrew Vaughn are other players projected for similar numbers in the later rounds.

In conclusion, Cody Bellinger’s performance has sparked both excitement and skepticism. While his 2023 season was undeniably impressive, his suboptimal Statcast metrics raise concerns about his ability to sustain his success. However, his ability to handle left-handed pitching and excel in two-strike situations provides some reassurance. As draft season continues, it is crucial to work backward in strategy and identify late-round steals. The Yankees, White Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles all have intriguing prospects to watch out for in the upcoming season.