The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a history of struggling in big games, often faltering when the stakes are high. This trend continued in Game 4 against the Boston Bruins, where the Leafs looked lifeless and disjointed. The question now is whether they can respond in Game 5 and mount a serious comeback or if they will once again go out with a whimper.
The Leafs’ record in elimination games since 2019 is a dismal 3-10. They have had multiple opportunities to close out series, but have fallen short time and time again. In 2019, they lost Game 6 to the Bruins at home and were subsequently blown out in Game 7. In 2020, it took a miraculous comeback from Auston Matthews to avoid a loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets in Game 4 of the play-in round. However, they were shut out in Game 5 and eliminated from the playoffs. In 2021, they blew a 3-1 series lead over the Montreal Canadiens and lost Game 7 at home. In 2022, they had two chances to eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning but failed to do so, ultimately losing Game 7.
One of the recurring themes in these losses has been the underperformance of the Leafs’ star players. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander have often struggled to produce when it matters most. In the current series against the Bruins, Matthews had a strong performance in Game 2 but fell ill and saw his play decline in Games 3 and 4. Marner and Tavares have been tasked with shutting down Boston’s top line, but have not been able to generate much offense. Nylander, who was absent for the first three games of the series, has looked out of sync since his return.
The Leafs’ power play has also been a point of concern. They have scored just one goal on 14 opportunities in the series. In February, however, they had a power play success rate of 50 percent, with Matthews and Nylander leading the charge. It may be worth considering changes to the power play unit, such as splitting up the star players onto different units to create more competition and freshness.
Generating offense will be crucial for the Leafs if they want to extend the series. They have relied heavily on Matthews’ line for scoring, but that strategy has only worked once so far. Tavares, in particular, has struggled to make an impact at five-on-five and has been burdened with defensive zone faceoffs. The coaching staff may need to explore other options for defensive zone draws to free up Tavares’ line for more offensive opportunities.
In addition to improving their offense, the Leafs will need to win the goalie battle to have a chance at a comeback. The Bruins’ goaltending duo of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark has been stellar, posting a combined save percentage of .944. The Leafs’ goaltending situation is uncertain, with either Ilya Samsonov or Joseph Woll expected to start in Game 5. Whichever goalie gets the nod, they will need to outperform their Boston counterparts.
Despite the odds being stacked against them, the Leafs are not giving up hope. Head coach Sheldon Keefe believes the series is closer than it appears and points to the team’s ability to respond well on the road. While a comeback may seem unlikely at this point, the Leafs are still alive in the series and will continue to fight to keep their season alive.
Overall, the Leafs’ history of struggling in big games and their current challenges in generating offense and winning the goalie battle make a comeback difficult. However, if they can make adjustments to their power play, find ways to create more offensive opportunities for players like Tavares, and get strong goaltending, they may have a chance to turn the series around. Only time will tell if the Leafs can finally rise to the occasion when it matters most.