Analyzing the Home Run Derby requires a closer look at the statistics behind the winning performances. The key factors to consider are the velocity of the ball and the launch angle. Typically, the balls that perform best in the derby are hit harder than 105 mph and have a launch angle between 28 to 32 degrees, which allows for those impressive moon shots that viewers love.
If we label these powerful hits as “Blasts,” it becomes evident that every modern Home Run Derby winner, except for last year’s champion Vladimir Guerrero Jr., has been among the top performers in terms of Blasts. This track record of success suggests that the winner of this year’s derby will likely come from the top half of the participants in terms of Blasts.
So, who are the participants who have hit the most Blasts this year? According to the data, Gunnar Henderson leads with 8 Blasts, followed by Teoscar Hernández with 6, Marcell Ozuna and Bobby Witt Jr. with 4 each, Adolis García with 3, Pete Alonso with 2, and Alec Bohm with 1. José Ramirez has yet to hit a Blast.
However, there is another statistic to consider when predicting the winner: Barrel rate. In the Statcast Era, a player with a five-point advantage in Barrel rate has won 17 out of 22 matchups. While this year’s format is more round-robin, it is worth noting that the players with the highest Barrel rates align closely with the leaders in Blasts. Ozuna leads with a Barrel rate of 17.9%, followed by Witt with 14.9%, Hernández with 14.7%, and Henderson with 14.1%.
Examining the odds, it is clear that Alonso, Ozuna, and García are favored as potential winners. However, there may be opportunities to make less conventional choices. Henderson, Hernández, and Witt have all been consistently hitting the ball hard enough to be genuine contenders for the title.
If we had to pick one winner based on the statistics, it would be a close call between Henderson and Witt. While Henderson has the most Barrels in July, Witt has a slight edge in terms of overall velocity, hitting the ball at an average speed of 93.5 mph compared to Henderson’s 92.6 mph. Therefore, Bobby Witt Jr. emerges as the predicted winner of this year’s Home Run Derby.
It is important to note that these predictions are not set in stone and anything can happen in a competition like the Home Run Derby. Nevertheless, the data and statistics provide valuable insights that can guide our predictions and enhance our enjoyment of the event.