The NFL season has been full of surprises and unexpected outcomes, and last week was no exception. The Kansas City Chiefs, a team that many expected to dominate this year, suffered a loss to the Denver Broncos. This just goes to show that anything can happen in the NFL. In fact, there has been a lot of poor quarterback play this season, and it doesn’t seem like that trend is going away anytime soon. This week alone, we saw Jimmy Garoppolo and Desmond Ridder benched, among other struggling quarterbacks. It’s clear that opposing defenses have little to fear from these quarterbacks.
Fortunately, my NFL projection model takes into account the quarterback position. While it’s been a rough couple of weeks for my model, I’m hopeful that it will adjust to the poor offensive efficiency we’ve been seeing and get back to its early season success. However, I must admit that this week’s NFL Sunday betting cards are some of the most unappealing I’ve seen in a while.
Last week, my record was 1-3, resulting in a loss of 2.35 units. So far this season, my record stands at 22-23, with a loss of 1.55 units and a -3.3% return on investment. It’s not the best record, but I’m confident that things will turn around.
As for this week’s bets, the card is relatively small at the moment, but there are a couple of plays to watch out for that may be added later in the week. In addition to the Sunday games, we also have Thursday Night Football action and a game taking place in Germany. So, there’s plenty of football to look forward to.
Now let’s dive into my Week 9 best bets:
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-115) vs. Tennessee Titans (to win 1.5 units)
The return of Cameron Heyward to the Steelers’ defense is bad news for a rookie quarterback like Will Levis, who will be playing on the road on a short week. While Levis looked impressive last week against the Falcons, he’ll face a tougher challenge this week. The Steelers’ defense should be able to contain him and secure the win. However, I must note that this is a 1.5-unit play, so there is some level of risk involved.
Kansas City Chiefs ML (-120) vs. Miami Dolphins
Whenever I can get Patrick Mahomes laying a field goal or less, it’s an automatic bet for me. Of course, my model still needs to agree, but it’s hard to pass up on such an opportunity. Considering that the Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Broncos, this is a great buy-low spot. The Chiefs are simply -120 to win the game, making it an enticing bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans under 40 (-110)
According to my model, this game is unlikely to reach the 40-point mark. It predicts a total score around the “key” number of 38. The Buccaneers’ offense has been struggling lately, relying heavily on early down runs and finding themselves in third-and-long situations far too often. The Texans’ offense, while rookie C.J. Stroud has been a pleasant surprise, still struggles to score consistently. They’ve only surpassed 20 points twice this season and have failed to reach 200 passing yards in their last two games. Therefore, I believe the under is a solid bet here.
Now, let’s take a look at some lines to watch:
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots
If the Commanders’ line reaches +3.5 (-110), I believe they’re worth a bet. Despite being sellers at the trade deadline, it’s hard to justify laying 3.5 points with the Patriots’ offense in the year 2023.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
If the Eagles’ line drops below a field goal, I think they’re worth a bet. I have some doubts about the Cowboys’ run defense against the Eagles’ rushing attack, which can keep Micah Parsons at bay.
In conclusion, this week’s NFL betting card may not be the most exciting, but there are still some opportunities to make profitable bets. As always, it’s important to do your own research and consider multiple factors before placing any bets. Good luck!
(Photo of Travis Kelce: Kohjiro Kinno / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)