England’s hopes of securing a fifth Champions League place next season received a glimmer of hope after Aston Villa’s penalty shoot-out win over Lille in the Europa Conference League. However, it will still be a difficult task to overtake Germany in the race for the last spot.
The recent Champions League exits suffered by Arsenal and Manchester City put the pressure on Villa, West Ham, and Liverpool to keep England’s hopes alive. Although Liverpool managed a win against Atalanta, their first-leg deficit was too significant to overcome. West Ham also bowed out after Leverkusen secured a late equalizer at the London Stadium.
These results added 0.375 points to England’s coefficient tally, bringing it to 17.25 points. Germany, on the other hand, received a qualification bonus point in addition to the one for the draw, taking their tally to 17.928 points. Villa did not earn any points for their shoot-out win in France, as bonus points in the Conference League are only available for reaching the final and winning it.
For England to have a chance at stealing the fifth Champions League place, Villa would need to win both legs of the semi-final clash and lift the trophy in Athens next month, which would take England’s total to 18.25 points. However, even in that scenario, Germany would need their three semi-final qualifiers to suffer an absolute disaster.
Currently, the top nations rank as follows for European places: Italy is in first place with 19.286 points, followed by Germany with 17.928 points, and England with 17.25 points. France is in fourth place with 15.583 points, but their maximum possible total could increase if Marseille advances.
Bayern Munich and Real Madrid will face off in the Champions League semi-finals, while Dortmund will take on PSG. Leverkusen, meanwhile, will play Roma in the Europa League. Even if all three German teams are knocked out, they only need three draws or a win and a draw between them to secure a minimum of three points, which would be enough to surpass England’s hopes.
Italy has already secured an extra place in the Champions League. Ultimately, it will take a significant turn of events for England to leapfrog Germany and secure that coveted fifth spot.