Taking Stock: Who Will Be the 2024 Cup Series Champion?
After the conclusion of the regular season at the Southern 500, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are set to begin. With the playoffs known for their unpredictability, it is difficult to determine who will come out on top as the 2024 Cup Series champion. In the past two years, unlikely contenders such as Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have made championship runs, proving that getting hot at the right time during the playoffs is crucial. This season, the field is wide open, with an even split of cars among the manufacturers and eight different teams accounting for the 16 playoff spots. While some may argue that there are easy outs in the field, recent races have shown that any driver has the potential to pull off an upset victory. Predicting the playoffs is a challenging task, but here is one possible scenario for how the playoffs will unfold:
Round 1 (Atlanta, Watkins Glen, Bristol):
This round consists of a superspeedway, a road course with a new tire, and an unpredictable short track. The key to advancing to Round 2 will be having three clean races with top-15 finishes. However, some drivers may struggle in this round. Harrison Burton, who finished last in the point standings, and Daniel Suárez are unlikely to make it through. Joey Logano’s crash-filled summer does not bode well for his chances either. Additionally, Chase Elliott may face an unlucky break due to his lack of playoff points. Therefore, these drivers are predicted to be eliminated in Round 1.
Round 2 (Kansas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval):
Round 2 presents another challenge with a race at Kansas, another superspeedway, and a road course. This setup provides an opportunity for darkhorse drivers to make their mark and eliminate some key contenders. Denny Hamlin, who has had a history of playoff misfortune, is expected to face challenges in this round. Austin Cindric and Martin Truex Jr. are also likely to be eliminated, along with William Byron. The unpredictable nature of these tracks could lead to surprising outcomes.
Round 3 (Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville):
This round will be a battle among the best remaining drivers, narrowing down the field to four title contenders. Chase Briscoe’s impressive run is expected to come to an end, along with Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, and Ty Gibbs. These drivers will see their title hopes disappear in Round 3.
Championship race (Phoenix):
The final four drivers competing for the championship will be Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick. Of these contenders, Bell stands out as a real threat to win the title. With victories at Phoenix earlier in the season and at a similar track in New Hampshire, Bell has shown his prowess in these types of races. This will be his third consecutive appearance in the Championship 4, and this time, he is predicted to close it out and win his first Cup Series championship.
Fastest Car Tracker: The Truth Behind Winning and Speed
Throughout the regular season, the fastest car in a NASCAR race does not always end up winning. This fact was once again evident in the Southern 500, where Chase Briscoe showed grit and determination to claim victory despite not having the fastest car. Kyle Larson, who led a season-high 263 laps, was unable to secure the win. This observation highlights the inherent unpredictability of NASCAR races, with various factors such as stage breaks, caution periods, and restarts influencing the outcome. While Christopher Bell had the fastest car most often this season, followed by Larson and Denny Hamlin, the statistic also demonstrates the parity among drivers in the Next Gen era. With different drivers accounting for the fastest car in 28 races, it is clear that speed alone does not guarantee victory.
Q&A: The Case for a Season-Long Points Format
The debate surrounding the season-long points format in NASCAR is a contentious one. Proponents of the playoffs argue that the points battle throughout the regular season is a mirage, as drivers and teams would race differently if winning did not hold significant rewards. However, this argument does not hold true when considering the first 26 races of the season, where drivers scramble for higher positions in the standings to secure more playoff points. The close race for the regular-season championship, with Tyler Reddick winning by a single point over Larson and 29 points over Elliott, demonstrates the significance of the points battle leading up to the playoffs. While the playoffs add excitement and drama, the artificial and forced nature of the format often raises questions about the credibility of the champion. A season-long format would eliminate such doubts and ensure that the eventual champion truly deserves their title. Although blowout years may occur, the increased parity in modern NASCAR makes it harder for drivers to run away with a points lead. Therefore, it may be worth considering a return to a season-long format.
Is it Possible to Predict the Championship 4?
At the halfway point of the regular season, there was speculation about which drivers would make it to the Championship 4 based on their positions in the standings. However, historical data from previous Next Gen seasons revealed that only one of the eventual final four drivers were in the top four of the standings at the halfway point. This suggests that early-season performance does not necessarily translate to playoff success. In the current season, Larson is the only driver among the top four at the halfway point who appears to be a strong contender for the Championship 4. Hamlin and Elliott have work to do, while Truex is unlikely to make it far. Meanwhile, Reddick and Bell were not on the radar at the halfway point but have emerged as strong contenders. This serves as a reminder that early-season performance can be misleading, and it is important to consider the entire season when predicting playoff success.
Quirks and Misconceptions: Reddick’s Stomach Bug
Despite rumors circulating after the race, Tyler Reddick did not soil himself or vomit inside the car during the Southern 500. Racing at high speeds with a stomach bug can cause discomfort, and Reddick expressed his struggle over the team radio. However, he clarified that he did not experience any accidents inside the car. Reddick’s comments were a result of the extreme conditions he faced, including the searing heat and humidity, which can affect a person’s speech. While the story may be embellished in the future, it is essential to separate fact from fiction. Reddick’s determination to push through the illness and win the regular-season title by a single point is commendable.
Mini Power Rankings: The Top Contenders
Based on performances in the regular season, here is a mini power ranking of the top contenders heading into the playoffs:
1. Kyle Larson: With a strong showing at the Southern 500, leading the most laps in over three years, Larson’s No. 5 team is ready for another deep playoff run.
2. Tyler Reddick: Despite battling a stomach bug, Reddick’s recent performances have been impressive. However, he did not have the fastest car at the Southern 500, which may be a concern.
3. Christopher Bell: Bell enters the playoffs with several strong finishes in recent races. If he can survive the first two rounds, he will be a significant threat for the championship.
4. Kyle Busch: Although he missed the playoffs, Busch’s recent performances have shown improvement. His Richard Childress Racing cars have looked stronger since the Olympic break.
5. Ryan Blaney: Blaney’s recent string of bad luck does not reflect his overall speed. He had consistent top-11 finishes until the recent cold streak and could bounce back in the playoffs.
As the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begin, these drivers will be ones to watch as they vie for the championship title.